စကၤာပူအေရွ႕ပင္လယ္မွေလဖိအားနည္းရပ္ဝန္း မုန္တိုင္းျဖစ္လာႏိုင္

စကၤာပူ၏ အေရွ႕ေျမာက္ယြန္းယြန္း မိုင္ ၃ဝဝ ခန္႕တြင္ ျဖစ္ေပၚေနေသာ ေလဖိအားနည္းရပ္ဝန္းသည္ လာမည့္ ၂၄ နာရီအတြင္း ပိုမိုအားေကာင္းလာကာ အပူပိုင္းမုန္တိုင္းအျဖစ္သို႕ ေရာက္ရွိလာႏိုင္ေၾကာင္း JTWC မွ ေၾကျငာထားပါသည္။ ၄င္းသည္ ေျမာက္-အေနာက္ေျမာက္ဘက္သို႕ တစ္နာရီလွ်င္ ၁ဝ မိုင္ႏွဳန္းျဖင့္ ေရြ႕လွ်ားလွ်က္ရွိေနေၾကာင္း ေၾကျငာခ်က္တြင္ေဖၚျပထားပါသည္။

JTWC ၏ ထုတ္ျပန္ေၾကျငာခ်က္မူရင္းအားေအာက္တြင္ေဖၚျပေပးထားပါသည္။

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS OF 4.5N 107.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

• AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
• WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
• METSAT IMAGERY AT 231030Z INDICATES A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 4.5N 107.2E. THE SYSTEM ISMOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.7N 107.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.5N 107.2E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM NORTHEAST OF SINGAPORE.

• ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING NEAR A QUICKLY IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
• A 230156Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC LLCC WITH CENTER WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
• ADDITIONALLY, THE ASCAT PASS SHOWS 30-KNOT PERIPHERIAL WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST (ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY COLD SURGE THROUGH THE SOUTH CHINA SEA) AND 20-25 KNOTS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER.
• FINALLY, A 230931Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS CONVERGING TOWARDS THE LLCC, ILLUSTRATING THE IMPROVING NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION.
• UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND FAVORABLY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
• MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
• MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
• DUE TO CONSOLIDATION OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE IMPROVING NATURE OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 241100Z.

မုန္တိုင္း MORAKOT update

စေနေန႕ နံနက္ (ျမန္မာစံေတာ္ခ်ိန္ျဖင့္ ၃ နာရီခြဲခန္႕) တြင္ ကုန္းတြင္းသို႕ ဝင္ေရာက္စဥ္ အဆင့္ – ၂ တိုင္ဖြန္းမုန္တိုင္း အျဖစ္ဝင္ေရာက္ႏိုင္

Tracking Info For Tropical Storm Morakot

18 GMT 08/03/09  21.2N 135.9E     35       Tropical Depression
18 GMT 08/04/09  21.2N 135.9E     35       Tropical Depression
00 GMT 08/04/09  21.8N 136.2E     40       Tropical Storm
06 GMT 08/04/09  22.3N 135.3E     45       Tropical Storm
12 GMT 08/04/09  22.4N 134.5E     50       Tropical Storm
18 GMT 08/04/09  22.4N 133.7E     60       Tropical Storm
18 GMT 08/05/09  22.4N 133.7E     60       Tropical Storm
00 GMT 08/05/09  22.5N 132.9E     65       Tropical Storm
06 GMT 08/05/09  22.8N 132.2E     65       Tropical Storm
050900z position near 23.0n 131.7e. 
Tropical Storm (TS) 09w (morakot), located approximately 325 nm southeast of Okinawa, Japan,
has tracked westward at 10 knots over the past six hours. 

Animated multispectral imagery shows convection consolidating into the center of a very large circulation along with deep convective bands
wrapping into the southern side of the circulation center. 

Good radial outflow, along with venting into a tropical upper tropospheric trough to the east, is also evident. A 050424z AMSU
image shows curved inflow lines on the surface wrapping into a low level circulation center along with deep convective curved banding
in the southwest quadrant of the system. 

The system is continuing to track westward under the steering influence of a sub-tropical ridge to the north. 

Current position is based on position estimates from pgtw and rjtd. Intensity is based on intensity estimate from pgtw.
Objective aids are in fair agreement with NOGAPS and GFS both losing the circulation after 36 hours and tracking erroneous artifacts to
the northeast but all other aids continue the system into the Mainland of China. Maximum significant wave height at 050600z is 19
feet. 

Next warnings at 051500z, 052100z, 060300z and 060900z.