ေအာက္မွာေဖၚျပထားတဲ့ ၂၂ ဇူလိုင္ေနၾကတ္မဲ့ အေျခအေနနဲ႕ ဆက္စပ္ျဖစ္ေပၚလာႏိုင္တယ္ ဆိုတဲ့ ေျမငလွ်င္နဲ႕ ဆူနာမီေတြရဲ႕ ကိစၥကိုေတာ့ သိပၸံပညာရွင္မ်ားက ျဖစ္ႏိုင္ေျခမရွိေၾကာင္း၊ ငလွ်င္ကို ႀကိဳတင္ခန္႕မွန္းတြက္ခ်က္လို႕ မရႏိုင္ေၾကာင္း တညီတညြတ္ထဲ ဆံုးျဖတ္ခဲ့ၾကတယ္လို႕ သိရပါတယ္။
စကၤာပူႏိုင္ငံ Earth Observatory of Singapore (EOS) က Professor Kerry Sieh ရဲ႕ ၁၉ဝဝ ခုႏွစ္က စ လို႕ျပင္းအားအဆင့္ ၈ ႏွင့္ အထက္ ရွိတဲ့ ငလွ်င္ႀကီးမ်ား ၈၂ ႀကိမ္လႈပ္ခဲ့ေၾကာင္း၊ ေနၾကတ္တဲ့အခ်ိန္နဲ႕နီးနီးစပ္စပ္ တိုက္ဆိုင္လႈပ္ခဲ့တာကေတာ့ ၂ ႀကိမ္သာရွိေၾကာင္း၊ အခု ေနၾကတ္တာေၾကာင့္ ငလွ်င္နဲ႕ ဆူနာမီ ျဖစ္လာႏိုင္တယ္ဆိုတဲ့ အေၾကာင္းနဲ႕ပတ္သက္လို႕ သိပၸံနည္းက် သက္ေသျပႏိုင္တာမရွိေၾကာင္း စသည္ျဖင့္ အေသးစိတ္ ရွင္းျပခဲ့ၿပီးျဖစ္ပါတယ္။
သို႕ေပမဲ့ ပေရာ္ဖက္ဆာ Kerry ကဘဲ Nanyang Technological University (NTU) ရဲ႕ အ႑ဝါေဗဒ ေလ့လာေရး အဖြဲ႕ ကရွာေဖြေတြ႕ရွိခဲ့တဲ့ အင္ဒိုနီးရွားႏိုင္ငံ ဆူမၾတာေဒသ ပင္လယ္ၾကမ္းျပင္ေအာက္က သႏၱာေတြရဲ႕ ပင္စည္ေတြမွာ ျဖစ္ေပၚတဲ့ လကၡဏာအမွတ္အသားေတြျဖစ္ေပၚမႈ အေပၚေလ့လာေတြ႕ရွိခ်က္အရ လာမဲ့ ဆယ္စုႏွစ္ အနည္းငယ္အတြင္း ဆူမၾတာ အေနာက္ဘက္ေဒသမွာ ႀကီးမားတဲ့ ငလွ်င္နဲ႕ ဆူနာမီႀကီးမ်ား အႏၱရာယ္က်ေရာက္ႏိုင္ေၾကာင္း ေအာက္ ဒုတိယ ေကာက္ႏွဳတ္ခ်က္ Prehistoric Record Improves Forecast of Large West Sumatran Earthquake and Tsunami မွာေရးသားထားခဲ့တာကလဲ ရွိေနျပန္တာေၾကာင့္ က်ေနာ္တို႕ အေနနဲ႕ အဲဒီရက္ေရာက္သည္အထိ ဆက္ၿပီး ေစာင့္ၾကည့္ရဦးမွာ ျဖစ္ပါတယ္။
အခု ေနၾကတ္ျခင္းနဲ႕ ငလွ်င္ႀကီး ဆက္စပ္လႈပ္ခတ္လာႏိုင္တယ္ဆိုတဲ့ သီအိုရီကို စတင္ ေရးသားခဲ့သူ Britton LaRoche ကလဲ ျဖစ္ႏိုင္ေျခရွိတဲ့ ေဒသမွာ ေနထိုင္သူမ်ားအေနနဲ႕ သတိထားၾကဘို႕ ေျပာရံုကလြဲရင္ သူ႕အေနနဲ႕ (သိပၸံပညာရွင္တစ္ဦးလဲ မဟုတ္ သတိေပးခ်က္ေတြ-ေၾကျငာခ်က္ေတြကို ထုတ္ျပန္ႏိုင္သူ အာဏာပိုင္တစ္ဦးလဲ မဟုတ္တာေၾကာင့္ ) ဘာမွ ထပ္ေျပာစရာမရွိပါဘူး ၊ အဲဒီေန႕ ၂ဝဝ၉ခုႏွစ္ ဇူလိုင္လ ၂၂ ရက္ေန႕ မွာေနၾကတ္တာျဖစ္တဲ့အခါ ဇူလိုင္လ ၃ဝ ရက္ေန႕ေလာက္အထိ ဆက္ၿပီး သတိနဲ႕ ေနထိုင္သြားၾကရန္သာ အႀကံေပးလိုပါတယ္ လို႕ ေျပာထားခဲ့ပါတယ္။ သူကေတာ့ Simulator Model တည္ေဆာက္သူတစ္ဦးျဖစ္တဲ့ အားေလ်ာ္စြာ သူ႕ Simulator က ထြက္ေပၚလာတဲ့ စိတ္ဝင္စားစရာ ပံုေတြနဲ႕ ဗီဒီယိုေတြကိုေတာ့ ေနာက္လာမဲ့ လအနည္းငယ္အတြင္း တင္ျပေပးခ်င္ပါတယ္ လို႕ သူ႕ရဲ႕ Blog ေပၚက latest comment မွာ ေရးထားတာ ေတြ႕ရပါတယ္။
Tokai Earthquakes အေၾကာင္း ၂ဝဝ၆ ခုႏွစ္ ႏိုဝင္ဘာလ ၂၂ ရက္ေန႕က http://my.opera.com/nielsol/blog/2006/11/22/tokai-earthquakes မွာေရးသားခဲ့တဲ့ Ole Nielsen ကေတာ့ ေအာက္မွာ ေဖၚျပထားတဲ့ တတိယ ေဆာင္းပါး Solar Eclips and Earthquakes ? မွာ “That a Tokai Earthquake could occur at any moment” as I wrote in a post here already a couple of years ago is another matter, but putting a specific date to it for whatever reason is going too far. So far scientists have not found (or proved) any statistically significant correlation between solar eclipses and earthquakes. Tokai ငလွ်င္ ဘယ္ေတာ့ ထပ္လႈပ္မယ္ဆိုတဲ့ ေန႕ အတိအက်ေျပာဘို႕ကေတာ့ လံုးဝလြယ္တဲ့ ကိစၥမဟုတ္ပါဘူး သိပၸံပညာရွင္ေတြကလဲ ေနၾကတ္တာနဲ႕ ငလွ်င္လႈပ္တာရဲ႕ ဆက္စပ္မႈကို အခုအခ်ိန္အထိ သက္ေသျပႏိုင္ျခင္းမရွိေသး(သို႕မဟုတ္) ရွာေဖြေတြ႕ရွိျခင္း မရွိေသးဘူး လို႕ ေရးထားပါတယ္။
ေကာင္းပါၿပီ ..
အဲဒီေတာ့ က်ေနာ္တို႕ကလဲ ဒီပညာရွင္ႀကီးမ်ား အတည္ျပဳႏိုင္ဘို႕ ခက္ခဲေနတဲ့ ဇူလိုင္ ၂၂ ရက္ေန႕ ေနၾကတ္တာကေန ငလွ်င္ႀကီးမ်ား/ဆူနာမီလွဳိင္းႀကီးမ်ား ဆက္စပ္ျဖစ္ေပၚလာႏိုင္မယ္-မလာႏိုင္ဘူးဆိုတာကို က်ေနာ္တို႕လဲ ေဝခြဲဆံုးျဖတ္ဖို႕ရာ ခက္ခဲေၾကာင္းသိထားၿပီး သတိဝီရိယေလးနဲ႕ ေနထိုင္ၾကဘို႕ တိုက္တြန္းလိုပါေၾကာင္း ထပ္မံ ေရးသားတင္ျပေပးလိုက္ပါတယ္။
======================
Rumour about an Earthquake-Tsunami on 22 July 2009 Unfounded - 15-Apr-2009
The Earth Observatory of Singapore (EOS) has received several inquiries from the media and the general public about a rumour circulating in emails and blogs recently that a major tsunami triggered by a solar eclipse on July 22nd 2009 will devastate the southeast Asian region.
EOS affirms that, to date, scientists have not found any significant correlation between solar eclipses and earthquakes. Since 1900, for example, of 82 earthquakes greater than magnitude 8 worldwide, only two occurred close to the time of a solar eclipse. However, these were not only partial eclipses but also far from the locations of the earthquakes.
At present, no scientific methods or technologies exist that can pinpoint precisely the timing, location or magnitude of earthquakes. Longer-term forecasts, however, have been made on the basis of scientific information. For example, scientists from the Earth Observatory of Singapore and their Indonesian colleagues have forecast that another large earthquake off the west coast of Sumatra is likely within the next few decades. More details on this study can be found here:
http://www.earthobservatory.sg/media/2008/20081212_PrehistoricRecordImprovesForecastOfLarge
WestSumatranEarthquakeAndTsunami/index.php
Singapore is well protected from the threat of an earthquake-generated tsunami because it is not directly exposed to open ocean but surrounded by a number of land masses. A study completed in December 2008, by the Nanyang Technological University and the National University of Singapore, showed that a tsunami generated by rupture of a very large earthquake fault beneath the South China Sea would take about 10 hours to reach Singapore by which time most of the wave energy would have dissipated, resulting in only a moderate rise in sea level (less than a metre).
The EOS reiterates that there is no scientific evidence to support the rumour that an earthquake-tsunami in the southeast Asian region linked to the solar eclipse on 22 July 2009 will occur.
===Related Stories===
Prehistoric Record Improves Forecast of Large West Sumatran Earthquake and Tsunami
12-Dec-2008
A study of Indonesian reefs, published in the prestigious journal Science, showed corals record cyclical environmental events and could predict a massive earthquake in the eastern Indian Ocean within the next 30 years. Led by Professor Kerry Sieh, Director of the Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University (NTU), the team found that corals off Indonesia’s Sumatra island showed they have annual growth rings, like those in tree trunks, which record cyclical events such as earthquakes. Professor Kerry said that one or more very large West Sumatran earthquakes can be expected within the next few decades, as the potential slip that was not relieved in September 2007 is enough to generate a 8.8 magnitude earthquake, in a region with more than a million people living along the coast. For the past four years, Prof Kerry has also been working with Indonesian non-governmental organisations, NGOs on developing evacuation routes for earthquakes and educating the public how to rebuild their lives after a tsunami.
===Related Article===
Solar Eclipses and Earthquakes?
TUESDAY, 14. JULY 2009, 16:04:52
As I have been directly asked, I would like to point out that in my view there is no scientific evidence to support the rumour that an earthquake-tsunami in South East Asia or Japan linked to the solar eclipse on 22 July 2009 will occur.
“That a Tokai Earthquake could occur at any moment” as I wrote in a post here already a couple of years ago is another matter, but putting a specific date to it for whatever reason is going too far. So far scientists have not found (or proved) any statistically significant correlation between solar eclipses and earthquakes.
