မုန္တိုင္း MORAKOT ရဲ႕ အင္အားေၾကာင့္ ထိုင္ဝမ္ ၊ ထိုင္ေပ တို႕ကို အဆင့္ -၁ တိုင္ဖြန္းမုန္တိုင္းထက္ ျမင့္တဲ့ အင္အားအေျခအေနနဲ႕ ဝင္ေရာက္တိုက္ခတ္ႏိုင္ေျခရွိေၾကာင္း ၊ လာမဲ့ ၃၆ နာရီအတြင္း မုန္တိုင္ ဝင္ေရာက္ႏိုင္ေျခ ရာခိုင္ႏွဳန္းျပည့္နီးပါး(၉၅%)ရွိေၾကာင္း ၊ TSR မွ အနီေရာင္အဆင့္ သတိေပးခ်က္ထုတ္ျပန္ထားပါတယ္။

From:

**<TSRhelpdesk@tropicalstormrisk.com>**

Date: Thu, Aug 6, 2009 at 3:51 AM

Subject: TSR Storm Alert – Typhoon MORAKOT

To: u.winnaing.2008@gmail.com

Storm Alert issued at 5 Aug, 2009 18:00 GMT

**Typhoon MORAKOT is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):**

**Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)**

Taiwan

probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 36 hours probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours

Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 48 hours probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours

**Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)**

** China**

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours probability for TS is 80% in about 48 hours

**Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)**

**Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)**probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours

**T’aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)**probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours

**Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)**probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours probability for TS is 75% in about 96 hours

**Fu’an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)**probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours

**Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)**probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours

**Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)**probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours

**Wenling (28.4 N, 121.4 E)**probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours

**Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)**probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours

Note that

** Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.**

** ** **Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.**

CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

**Storm Alert issued at 5 Aug, 2009 18:00 GMT**

**Typhoon MORAKOT is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
**

**Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)**

Taiwan

probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 36 hours probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours

**Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)**

Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 48 hours probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours

**Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)**

China

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 80% in about 48 hours

**Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)**

Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)

probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours

T’aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours

Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 75% in about 96 hours

Fu’an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours

Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours

Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours

Wenling (28.4 N, 121.4 E)

probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours

Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

August 6, 2009 at 9:13 am

Links to view detail information :

အေသးစိတ္ ပံုမ်ားျဖင့္ mmweather homepage မ်ားတြင္ update လုပ္ထားမည္ျဖစ္ပါသည္။

http://mmweather.ning.com

http://sites.google.com/site/mmweathernow/

August 6, 2009 at 10:18 am

TY 0908 (Morakot) update

Issued at 02:40 UTC, 6 August 2009

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/090824d.html

Intensity Very Strong

Center position of probability circle N24°00′(24.0°) E123°55′(123.9°)

Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)

Central pressure 925hPa

Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)

Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)

Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

Storm warning area Wide 350km(190NM)