6AUG1030mmtime-Typhoon MORAKOT update

တိုင္ဖြန္းမုန္တိုင္း အျဖစ္သို႕ ေရာက္ရွိလာသည့္ MORAKOT (ထိုင္းဘာသာျဖင့္ “ျမ” ဟု အဓိပၸါယ္ရသည္) သည္ တျဖည္းျဖည္းခ်င္း ပိုမိုအားေကာင္းလာေနၿပီး ထိုင္ဝမ္ကၽြန္း-ထိုင္ေပ တို႕ကို ၿခိမ္းေျခာက္လွ်က္ရွိေနပါသည္။

ၾသဂုတ္လ ၇ ရက္ ၊ ျမန္မာစံေတာ္ခ်ိန္ ၆ နာရီခြဲ 00GMT တြင္ အဆင့္ ၄ ရွိ အလြန္အင္အားေကာင္းေသာတိုင္ဖြန္းမုန္တိုင္းႀကီးအျဖစ္ေရာက္ရွိလာမည္ ျဖစ္ေၾကာင္း TSR မွ သတင္းထုတ္ျပန္ထားပါသည္။

လာမည့္ ၃၆ နာရီအတြင္း ၾသဂုတ္လ ၇ ရက္ ၊ ျမန္မာစံေတာ္ခ်ိန္ ညေန ၁၈၃ဝ နာရီ 1200 GMT တြင္ ထိုင္ဝမ္ကၽြန္းကို Yilan City  ၿမိဳ႕အနီးမွ ျဖတ္ေက်ာ္ဝင္ေရာက္မည္ဟု ခန္႕မွန္းထားၿပီး ျဖတ္ေက်ာ္ဝင္ေရာက္စဥ္ ျပင္းအားအဆင့္ ၃ ႏွင့္ ၄ CAT-3 and 4 အၾကားရွိမည္ျဖစ္ေၾကာင္း သတင္းမ်ား တြင္ ေဖၚျပထားပါသည္။

JTWC forecast
1. For meteorologists.
2. 12 hour summary and analysis.
    A. Typhoon (TY) 09w (morakot) has continued to track westward under the steering influence of the subtropical ridge (str) located
to the north. Animated multispectral imagery shows deep convection wrapping into the low level circulation center (LLCC). 
A 052137z 37 ghz SSMI image indicates a microwave eye developing with deepest convection on the southern side. Animated water vapor imagery
indicates well established radial outflow improving poleward outflow into the mid-latitude westerlies, enabling the system to intensify
throughout the day to typhoon strength. 
Confidence in position and intensity estimates, based on fixes from pgtw, knes and rjtd, is fair. 
The vast 34-knot wind field associated with this system varies from 120 nm on the southwest quadrant to 200 nm on the northwest
quadrant. This is verified by surface observations from rodn with sustained winds of 25 knots gusting to 36 knots, 213 nm away from
the LLCC. Winds also verify with dropsonde observations from Taiwan dotstar aircraft.

3. Forecast reasoning.
    A. The forecast reasoning has not significantly changed since the last prognostic reasoning bulletin.
    B. TY 09w will continue to track westward along the southern periphery of the str. 
Conditions favor further strengthening due to favorable sea surface temperatures, dual ouflow conditions enhanced by the approaching mid-latitude trough, and a low vertical wind shear
environment through tau 36. By tau 36, the mid-latitude trough will also mildly weaken the str and allow the system to move slightly northwestward. Thereafter, the system will continue to track west-
northwestward and further intensification will be limited as the forecast takes TY 09w over northern Taiwan by tau 36 and into main-land China shortly before tau 72. Spread in the model guidance has
increased the uncertainty due to NOGAPS tracking northward while ukmo tracks TY 09w rapidly west-southwestward in the later Taus.
WBAR and COAMPS are on the northern side of the model spread and GFS takes TY 09w across southern Taiwan and into Mainland China near fuzhou. 
Therefore, lack of agreement in the guidance adds to the uncertainty of the current forecast and the current forecast is based on a blend of GFDN, JGSM, and ECMWF.//

6 Responses to “6AUG1030mmtime-Typhoon MORAKOT update”

  1. mmweather Says:

    Taiwan issues warnings for Typhoon Morakot
    08/06/2009 | 11:17 AM
    TAIPEI, Taiwan — Taiwan authorities have issued sea and land warnings for Typhoon Morakot and say people in the north of the island should be on guard for torrential rain.

    The Central Weather Bureau says that on Thursday morning, Morakot’s center was about 400 miles (640 kilometers) east of Taiwan’s eastern county of Yilan.

    The bureau says the typhoon is packing winds of 85 mph (135 kph), and is moving west at a speed of about 10 mph (20 kph).

    It warned ships in waters off northern and southern Taiwan to brace for the storm.

    Morakot would be the first major storm to strike the island this year. Typhoons frequently hit Taiwan between July and October. – AP

  2. mmweather Says:

    Classes suspended in some Metro Manila areas
    08/06/2009 | 12:41 PM
    Due to heavy rains spawned by typhoon “Kiko” (international codename: Morakot), private and public schools in Metro Manila suspended their classes Thursday noon, a television report said.

    QTV’s Balitanghali reported that pre-school, elementary, and high school classes in are suspended in the cities of Taguig, Pasay, Caloocan, and Malabon and the municipality of Pateros.

    Only public schools are suspended in Manila.

    As this developed, radio dzBB reported that pre-school, elementary, and high school classes are also suspended in Valenzuela City.

    Earlier in the day, the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said heavy rains would continue in Metro Manila, western Luzon and the Visayas until Saturday due to Kiko. – Sophia Dedace, GMANews.TV

  3. mmweather Says:

    Sea warning issued for Typhoon Morakot
    Central News Agency
    2009-08-05 10:20 PM
    Taipei, Aug. 5 (CNA) The Central Weather Bureau (CWB) issued a sea warning Wednesday for Typhoon Morakot, which was located some 1,000 kilometers east of Taiwan as of 8:00 p.m. and moving in a west northwesterly direction toward the island at 23 kilometers per hour.
    Warning that Morakot will be the worst typhoon to affect Taiwan so far this year, the CWB advised that boats take precautions against the storm, which has a radius of about 200 kilometers.

    The storm was gaining strength and was expected to be upgraded to a medium-strength typhoon, the weathermen said.

    A land warning could be issued by Thursday as the typhoon is expected to bring powerful winds and heavy rains to Taiwan, the CWB added.

    The weathermen said the typhoon will probably make landfall on Taiwan Friday, with the northern and northeastern regions bearing the brunt of it into Saturday.

    (By Flor Wang)

  4. mmweather Says:

    Tourists evacuated from E China island as typhoon nears
    http://www.chinaview.cn 2009-08-06 10:53:44
    HANGZHOU, Aug. 6 (Xinhua) — Chinese soldiers helped to evacuate 900 foreign and Chinese tourists from Nanji, a resort island off east China’s Zhejiang Province, before ferry services to the mainland stopped Thursday as Typhoon Morakot approached.

    China’s central observatory issued an orange alert, the second-highest-level alert, for Morakot

    Thursday morning, advising vessels to take shelter in ports or detour around the typhoon area. It also urged people in the path of the typhoon to shut doors and windows and avoid outdoor activities.

    A tourist from Jinhua City, Zhejiang, told Xinhua that soldiers visited each tourist spot on Nanji to persuade people to leave on Wednesday.

    “We didn’t expect the typhoon would be so strong, and had planned to stay on the island for another two days. We are grateful that the soldiers helped us book ferry tickets and leave the island safely before Morakot arrives,” he said.

    The eye of Morakot was located at 710 kilometers southeast off Keelung city of Taiwan as of 5 a.m. Thursday, packing winds up to 144 kilometers per hour, according to the observatory.

    It forecast Morakot would move northwestward at 20 to 25 kilometers per hour to northeastern coastal areas of Taiwan. The typhoon was expected to bring gales to eastern and northern coastal areas of Taiwan Thursday. Some regions in Taiwan would be hit by heavy rain or rain storm.

    The Zhejiang provincial observatory expected Morakot to strengthen into a strong typhoon and to make landfall late Friday or Saturday.

    The Shanghai-based East China Weather Forecast Center under the State Bureau of Oceanic Administration on Thursday warned coastal units to take high tide precautions, as Morakot would hit at a peak tide time, and the storm tide in Zhejiang and Fujian would surge 150 to 250cm on Saturday.

  5. mmweather Says:

    Typhoon MORAKOT (KIKO) now passing due south of Ryukyu-Okinawa Islands…rapidly intensifying…threatens Yaeyama Islands and Northern Taiwan…Outer feeder bands spreading into Taiwan & nearby islands.

    MORAKOT’s forecast has changed more to the west – due to the strengthening high pressure steering ridge north of it…now threatens Northern Taiwan including Metro Taipei.

    The 4-day Medium-Range Forecast shows the system reaching Category 4 status w/ possible strength of 215 kph before hitting Northern Taiwan early tomorrow eveing (approx 7PM). It shall first pass over Yaeyama Islands (located east of Northern Taiwan) early tomorrow (approx 2AM). The core (eye & eyewall) shall pass very close or over Taipei around midnight on Saturday Aug 8 before moving into Taiwan Strait and making its 2nd landfall over Southeastern China by early Sunday morning, Aug 9…shall rapidly dissipate on Monday Aug 9

  6. mmweather Says:

    TY 0908 (Morakot)
    Issued at 09:50 UTC, 6 August 2009

    Analyses at 06/09 UTC
    Scale Large
    Intensity Strong
    Center position N23°10′(23.2°)
    E126°05′(126.1°)
    Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
    Central pressure 960hPa
    Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
    Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
    Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 200km(110NM)
    Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 650km(350NM)

    Estimate for 06/10 UTC
    Scale Large
    Intensity Strong
    Center position N23°10′(23.2°)
    E125°55′(125.9°)
    Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
    Central pressure 960hPa
    Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
    Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
    Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 200km(110NM)
    Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 650km(350NM)

    Forecast for 06/15 UTC
    Intensity Strong
    Center position of probability circle N23°20′(23.3°)
    E125°00′(125.0°)
    Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
    Central pressure 955hPa
    Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
    Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
    Radius of probability circle 60km(30NM)
    Storm warning area Wide 280km(150NM)

    Forecast for 06/21 UTC
    Intensity Strong
    Center position of probability circle N23°35′(23.6°)
    E123°40′(123.7°)
    Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
    Central pressure 950hPa
    Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
    Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
    Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
    Storm warning area Wide 310km(170NM)

    Forecast for 07/03 UTC
    Intensity Very Strong
    Center position of probability circle N24°10′(24.2°)
    E122°50′(122.8°)
    Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(11kt)
    Central pressure 940hPa
    Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
    Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
    Radius of probability circle 120km(65NM)
    Storm warning area Wide 350km(190NM)

    Forecast for 07/09 UTC
    Intensity Very Strong
    Center position of probability circle N25°05′(25.1°)
    E122°00′(122.0°)
    Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(11kt)
    Central pressure 930hPa
    Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
    Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
    Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
    Storm warning area Wide 390km(210NM)


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