7AUG-Typhoon Morakot is dangerously closing in to Northern Taiwan…no change in strength.

Typhoon MORAKOT (KIKO) now passing due south of Yaeyama Islands…dangerously closing in to Northern Taiwan…no change in strength.

တိုင္ဖြန္းမုန္တိုင္း MORAKOT အင္အားသိသိသာသာ ေကာင္းလာတာမဟုတ္ပဲ CATEGORY-2 တစ္နာရီလွ်င္ ၁၆၅ မိုင္ႏွဳန္းအဆင့္သို႕ ေရာက္ရွိလာေနပါတယ္။

ဒီကေန႕ ည ေစာေစာပိုင္းေလာက္မွာ ထိုင္ဝမ္ကၽြန္းေျမာက္ပိုင္း – Hualiem အနီးမွာ ကုန္းတြင္းကိုဝင္ေရာက္မယ္လို႕ ခန္႕မွန္းထားၾကပါတယ္။

ဘယ္လိုဘဲ ျဖစ္ျဖစ္ မုန္တိုင္းရဲ႕ ဗဟိုခ်က္ (မုန္တိုင္းမ်က္ေစ့) ကေတာ့ Hualien နဲ႕ အနီးဆံုးေနရာကို ဝင္ေရာက္တိုက္ခတ္မဲ့အေၾကာင္း သတိေပးခ်က္ေတြ ထုတ္ျပန္ထားပါတယ္။

မုန္တိုင္းအခ်က္အလက္မ်ား

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Fri August 07 2009
Location of Eye: 23.5º N Lat 123.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 200 km (108 nm) ESE of Hualien, Taiwan
Distance 2: 255 km (138 nm) SE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 3: 370 km (200 nm) NNE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 4: 515 km (278 nm) SE of Fuzhou, China
Distance 5: 565 km (305 nm) WSW of Okinawa, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg):
150 kph (80 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 185 kph (100 kts)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 meters]

One Response to “7AUG-Typhoon Morakot is dangerously closing in to Northern Taiwan…no change in strength.”

  1. mmweather Says:

    WDPN32 PGTW 070300
    MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
    SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 09W (MORAKOT) WARNING NR 14//
    RMKS/
    1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.

    2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TYPHOON (TY) 09W (MORAKOT) HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK WESTWARD AND MAINTAINED AN INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, THOUGH IT HAS STARTED TO SHOW A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE
    LAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY DEVELOPED TYPHOON WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
    THE IMAGERY ALSO DEPICTS THE BEGINNINGS OF AN EYE FEATURE.
    CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND THE CURRENT POSITION ESTIMATE ALSO INCORPORATES RADAR FIXES OUT OF TAIWAN.
    TY 09W HAS TRACKED ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST AND IS STARTING TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
    TY 09W HAS ALSO STARTED TO SLOW ITS TRACK SPEED AS IT APPROACHES A WEAKER STEERING ENVIRONMENT CAUSED BY THE WEAKENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BY THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.

    3. FORECAST REASONING.
    A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED SINCE THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
    B. FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS, TYPHOON 09W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO ITS NORTHEAST.
    HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW AND TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE RIDGE AND CAUSES A SLIGHTLY WEAKER STEERING ENVIRONMENT.
    IN ADDITION, TY 09W WILL SLOW IN TRACK SPEED AND WEAKEN IN INTENSITY SHORTLY AFTER TAU 12 AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE TOPOGRAPHY OF TAIWAN.
    AFTER TAU 24, TY 09W WILL ENTER THE TAIWAN STRAIT AS A WEAK TYPHOON AND SHOULD MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY THROUGH THE STRAIT DUE TO FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES. TY 09W WILL ALSO CONTINUE ITS NORTHWEST TRACK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE EAST AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH.
    TY 09W WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR FUZHOU, CHINA, PRIOR TO TAU 48 AND DISSIPATE OVER BY TAU 72.
    THE ECMWF AND JMA SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST TRACK THOUGH THE NOGAPS MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT A DUE NORTH TRACK AND THE UKMO MODEL SHOWS A RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE CHINA COAST.//


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