ေတာင္တရုတ္ပင္လယ္မွ ေလဖိအားနည္းရပ္ဝန္း အပူပိုင္းမုန္တိုင္းျဖစ္လာႏိုင္

ေတာင္တရုတ္ပင္လယ္မွ ေလဖိအားနည္းရပ္ဝန္း အပူပိုင္းမုန္တိုင္းျဖစ္လာႏိုင္ၿပီး လက္ရွိ JTWC တိုင္းထြက္ခ်က္တြင္ ေတာင္/အေနာက္ေတာင္ဘက္သို႕ တစ္နာရီ ၃မိုင္ ႏွဳန္းျဖင့္ေရြ႕လ်ားလ်က္ရွိေနေၾကာင္း သိရပါသည္။

၄င္း ေလဖိအားနည္းရပ္ဝန္းသည္ ဗီယက္နမ္ႏိုင္ငံ HUE ၿမိဳ႕ အေရွ႕-အေရွ႕ေတာင္ဘက္ ၁၆၅ မိုင္ခန္႕တြင္ ဗဟိုျပဳတည္ရွိလွ်က္ရွိေၾကာင္း၊ တည္ေနရာ 15.2N 110.2E တြင္ အခ်င္း မိုင္ ၁ဝဝ ခန္႕ဧရိယာအတြင္း ေနာက္လာမည့္ ၁၂ နာရီမွ ၂၄ နာရီအတြင္း အပူပိုင္းမုန္တိုင္းအသြင္သို႕ ကူးေျပာင္းႏိုင္ဘြယ္ရွိသည္ဟု JTWC ၏ ေနာက္ဆံုးတိုင္းထြာရရွိခ်က္တြင္ ေဖၚျပထားပါသည္။

============

JTWC ထုတ္ျပန္ခ်က္

WTPN21 PGTW 031400
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 100 NM RADIUS OF 15.2N 110.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.  WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 031200Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 110.1E.  THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.6N
110.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 110.1E APPROXIMATELY 165 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIET NAM. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS IN A REGION OF VERY WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (IN EXCESS OF 28 C) WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. A 030600Z AMSU
IMAGE SHOWS A PARTLY EXPOSED DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
ALSO VISIBLE IN ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
041400Z.

One Response to “ေတာင္တရုတ္ပင္လယ္မွ ေလဖိအားနည္းရပ္ဝန္း အပူပိုင္းမုန္တိုင္းျဖစ္လာႏိုင္”

  1. mmweather Says:

    ေလဖိအားနည္းရပ္ဝန္း အားေပ်ာ့သြားေသာ္လည္း ဆက္လက္တည္ရွိေနဆဲျဖစ္
    ========================================
    THIS CANCELS REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 031400).
    THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 110.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 109.1E, APPROXIMATELY 110 NM SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM.
    RECENT MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SHEARED CONVECTION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST (CAUSED BY 20 TO 30 KNOTS OF UNFAVORABLE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR).
    THE CONVECTION IS NOW TOO FAR REMOVED FROM THE LLCC TO ATTAIN DVORAK ESTIMATES. SHIP OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA INDICATE LIGHT WINDS AND RISING SEA LEVEL PRESSURES.
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS.
    MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
    DUE TO LACK OF CONSOLIDATION AND DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR. SEE REF C (WTPN21 PGTW 040530) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.


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