စူပါတိုင္ဖြန္းမုန္တိုင္း CHOI-WAN update#3

စူပါတိုင္ဖြန္းမုန္တိုင္း Choi-wan သည္ ေျမာက္ပိုင္းသို႕ေရာက္ရွိလာလွ်င္ သမုဒၵရာ ေရမ်က္ႏွာျပင္ အပူခ်ိန္က်ဆင္းလာမႈေၾကာင့္ အင္အားေလ်ာ့လာႏိုင္ေၾကာင္း ခန္႕မွန္းၿပီးျဖစ္ရာ ေျမာက္ပစိဖိတ္သမုဒၵရာသို႕ ဝင္ေရာက္မည့္ စက္တင္ဘာလ ၁၉ ရက္ (စေနေန႕)ႏွင့္ ေနာက္ပိုင္းတြင္ တျဖည္းျဖည္းအင္အားေလ်ာ့က်လာႏိုင္ေၾကာင္း ထပ္မံအတည္ျပဳထုတ္ျပန္ခ်က္မ်ားကို ေတြ႕ရပါသည္။

ယေန႕ စက္တင္ဘာလ ၁၇ ရက္ေန႕ နံနက္ ျမန္မာစံေတာ္ခ်ိန္ျဖင့္ ၆ နာရီခြဲအခ်ိန္ TSR ထုတ္ျပန္ခ်က္အရ စူပါတိုင္ဖြန္းမုန္တိုင္း အဆင့္-၅ CAT-5 မွ အဆင့္-၄ CAT-4 သို႕ ေလ်ာ့က်သြားေၾကာင္း သိရပါသည္။ လာမည့္ ၄၈ နာရီေနာက္ပိုင္း စက္တင္ဘာလ ၁၉ ရက္ေန႕ ေနာက္ပိုင္းတြင္ အင္အား အဆင့္-၃ မွထပ္မံအားေလ်ာ့သြားၿပီး စက္တင္ဘာလ ၂၁ ရက္ နံနက္ တြင္ အပူပိုင္းမုန္တိုင္းအဆင့္သို႕ေရာက္ရွိသြားႏိုင္ေၾကာင္း ႀကိဳတင္ခန္႕မွန္း ထုတ္ျပန္ထားပါသည္။

Super Typhoon ChoiWan ၏ မုန္တိုင္းမ်က္ေစ့သည္ ယခုအခ်ိန္ထိ ထင္ရွားစြာေတြ႕ေနရဆဲျဖစ္ၿပီး ၄၁ ေပ ျမင့္သည့္  မုန္တိုင္းဒီလွိဳင္းမ်ားသည္ Iwo To ႏွင့္ Chichi Jima ကၽြန္းမ်ားတစ္ေလ်ာက္က်ေရာက္အႏၱရာယ္ေပးႏိုင္ေၾကာင္း သတိေပးထုတ္ျပန္ထားပါသည္။

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Reference Information from Typhoon 2000 update#14

CHOI-WAN (15W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 260 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 230 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 200 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 185 km/hr

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Thu September 17 2009
Location of Eye: 20.1 N Lat 141.1 E Lon
Distance 1: 525 km (283 nm) South of Iwo To
Distance 2: 635 km (345 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 3: 710 km (383 nm) South of Chichi Jima
Distance 4: 1,990 km (1,075 nm) East of Batanes, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg):
260 kph (140 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 315 kph (170 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Category 5
Coastal Storm Surge Height: >18 feet [>5.5 m]
Central Pressure: 918 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: NW @ 11 kph (06 kts)
General Direction: Iwo To-Chichi Jima Islands
Size (in Diameter): 1,000 km (540 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 41 ft (12.4 m)
NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 7 AM PST Thu Sep 17
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
18Z Wed Sep 16
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Thu Sep 17
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic:
Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

  • Forecast Outlook: CHOI-WAN is expected to continue moving NW to NNW within the next 12 to 24 hours. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the howler recurving Northward to NNE-ward, passing about 135 km to the west of Iwo To tomorrow aftermoon Sep 18 and about 130 km to the west of Chichi Jima on early Saturday morning, Sep 19. CHOI-WAN shall start to weaken as it accelerates further to the NE across a slightly cooler Northwestern Pacific Ocean, just south of Kuril Islands and shall become Extratropical by early Tuesday morning Sep 22.Effects: CHOI-WAN’s dangerous main core (eye & eyewall) remains over warm open seas…with its outer bands now spreading across Iwo To…and across Chichi Jima later today. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 250 mm can be expected along CHOI-WAN’s rainbands…with isolated accumulations of up to 400 mm near the center of CHOI-WAN or along its Eyewall. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of more than 18 feet above normal tide levels…accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves…is possible along the coastal areas of Iwo To and Chichi Jima. Catastrophic damage is likely on this type of storm surge.

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