တိုင္ဖြန္းမုန္တိုင္း KETSANA CAT-2 ျဖစ္လာမည္

တိုင္ဖြန္းမုန္တိုင္း KETSANA သည္ လာမည့္ ၁၂ နာရီအတြင္း ပိုမိုအင္အားေကာင္းလာၿပီး အဆင့္-၂ (CAT-2 Typhoon) အျဖစ္သို႕ ေရာက္ရွိလာကာ လာမည့္ ၂၄ နာရီမွ ၃၆ နာရီအတြင္း ဗီယက္နမ္ႏိုင္ငံ ဒါနန္းၿမိဳ႕ေျမာက္ဘက္ ၇ မိုင္ခန္႕မွ ကုန္းတြင္းသို႕ ျဖတ္ေက်ာ္ဝင္ေရာက္မည္ဟု ခန္႕မွန္းထားပါသည္။

မုန္တိုင္းကုန္းတြင္းသို႕ မဝင္ေရာက္မီ အဆင့္-၁ Typhoon CAT-1 သို႕ ျပန္လည္၍အားေလ်ာ့သြားႏိုင္ေၾကာင္း TSR ခန္႕မွန္းခ်က္တြင္ ေဖၚျပထားပါသည္။

တိုင္ဖြန္းမုန္တိုင္း KETSANA ႏွင့္ပတ္သက္၍ TSR မွ ဗီယက္နမ္ႏိုင္ငံ ဒါနန္းၿမိဳ႕ႏွင့္ Quang Ngai ၿမိဳ႕မ်ားအတြက္ အနီေရာင္အဆင့္ သတိေပးခ်က္ ကိုလည္းေကာင္း၊ လာအို/တရုတ္ႏွင့္ ကေမာၻဒီးယား ႏိုင္ငံမ်ားမွ ၿမိဳ႕ႀကီးအခ်ိဳ႕အား အဝါေရာင္အဆင့္ သတိေပးခ်က္ ကိုလည္းေကာင္း ထုတ္ျပန္လိုက္ၿပီျဖစ္ပါသည္။

သတိေပးခ်က္မူရင္းအား ေအာက္တြင္ကူးယူေဖၚျပထားပါသည္ –

Storm Alert issued at 28 Sep, 2009 6:00 GMT

Typhoon KETSANA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Vietnam
probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Da Nang (16.1 N, 108.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
Quang Ngai (15.1 N, 108.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Laos
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
China
probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
Cambodia
probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Dong Ha (16.8 N, 107.1 E)
probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
Kon Tum (14.4 N, 108.0 E)
probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
Qui Nhon (13.8 N, 109.2 E)
probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours
Dong Hoi (17.5 N, 106.6 E)
probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

Table relating the forecast probability values of being struck by hurricane (74 mph) and/or by tropical storm strength (39mph) winds to an equivalent simple description that the event will happen.
Probability Scale
Chance of Happening Value Chance of Happening Value
Extremely Low 10% Medium-High 60%
Very Low 20% High 70%
Low 30% Very High 80%
Medium-Low 40% Extremely High 90%
Medium 50% Certain 100%

ဗီယက္နမ္ႏိုင္ငံ ဒါနန္းအနီးမွ တိုင္ဖြန္းမုန္တိုင္း KETSANA ျဖတ္ေက်ာ္ဝင္ေရာက္မည္ဟု ခန္႕မွန္းထားေသာ လမ္းေၾကာင္းျပပံု

KETSANA-plot-1500mmtime

KETSANA-plot-1500mmtime_close

2 Responses to “တိုင္ဖြန္းမုန္တိုင္း KETSANA CAT-2 ျဖစ္လာမည္”

  1. mmweather Says:

    Please click on link below to view animation
    ANIMATION LINK

  2. mmweather Says:

    The Chinese central observatory forecasts Kestana, the 16th tropical storm this year, will continue strengthening and would hit southern coastal areas of Hainan or pass through the southern coast of Hainan to lash coastal regions in Vietnam on Tuesday or Wednesday. It ordered boats in Kestana’s path to return to harbor.


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