စူပါတိုင္ဖြန္းမုန္တိုင္း PARMA update

စူပါတိုင္ဖြန္းမုန္တိုင္း PARMA သည္ ယခု ဖိလစ္ပိုင္ႏိုင္ငံ မနီလာၿမိဳ႕ အေရွ႕ေတာင္ဘက္ မိုင္ ၅၂ဝ ခန္႕ သို႕ ေရာက္ရွိဗဟိုျပဳေနပါသည္။

ေလတိုက္ႏွဳန္း တစ္နာရီလွ်င္ ၁၅ဝ မွ ၁၈၅ မိုင္ႏွဳန္းအထိရွိၿပီး အေနာက္-အေနာက္ေျမာက္ဘက္သို႕ တစ္နာရီလွ်င္ ၂ဝ မိုင္ႏွဳန္းျဖင့္ ေရြ႕လ်ားလွ်က္ရွိပါသည္။ ဖိလစ္ပိုင္ႏိုင္ငံ ေျမာက္ပိုင္းကမ္းေျခကို ဝင္ေရာက္မတိုက္ခတ္မီ အားပိုေကာင္းလာႏိုင္ၿပီး ကမ္းေျခသို႕ ဝင္ေရာက္ၿပီးသည့္အခါ စူပါတိုင္ဖြန္းအဆင့္မွ ေလ်ာ့က်သြားႏိုင္ေၾကာင္း WUND ခန္႕မွန္းခ်က္တြင္ ေဖၚျပထားပါသည္။ မုန္တိုင္းဗဟိုတြင္ မုန္တိုင္းဒီေရအျမင့္ ၂၉ ေပအထိရွိမည္ျဖစ္ေၾကာင္း သိရပါသည္။

Original Forecast from JTWC to study more;

Super Typhoon (STY) 19w (parma) located approximately 520 nm east-southeast of Manila, Philippines, has tracked west-northwestward at 16 knots over the past six hours. Sty 19w has maintained intensity as a super typhoon over the past six hours, and is forecast to further intensify prior to landfall on the northeastern coast of Luzon near tau 48. Land interaction will cause the system to weaken below super typhoon status after tau 48 as the system enters the Luzon Strait. An approaching midlatitude trough will weaken the subtropical ridge (str) causing sty 19w to enter a region of competing steering in the Luzon Strait. The available model guidance is in fair agreement with landfall on Luzon near tau 48. GFDN is the southern outlier, making landfall in central Luzon, with JGSM and GFS (avno tracker) models remaining clear of the Luzon coast. After landfall there is more uncertainty in the model fields, with EGRR and ECMWF turning to the south into the South China Sea and NOGAPS continuing into the Luzon Strait towards Mainland China. Further
complicating the forecast in the extended period is Typhoon (TY) 20w (Melor) to the east. While not currently forecast to directly interact with sty 19w, the uncertainty introduced into the model fields by TY 20w must be addressed. It is possible that the presence of TY 20w will modify (in conjunction with the approaching mid-latitude trough) the steering ridge for 19w, causing sty 19w to become quasi-stationary in the Luzon Strait, or possibly turning sharply into the western coast of Luzon (as hinted by ECMWF and EGRR model trackers). Maximum significant wave height at 010600z is 29 feet. Next warnings at 011500z, 012100z, 020300z and 020900z. Refer to typhoon 20w (Melor) warnings (wtpn34 pgtw) for six-hourly updates.
  • Super Typhoon (STY) 19w (parma) located approximately 520 nm east-southeast of Manila, Philippines, has tracked west-northwestward at 16 knots over the past six hours. Sty 19w has maintained intensity as a super typhoon over the past six hours, and is forecast to further intensify prior to landfall on the northeastern coast of Luzon near tau 48.
  • Land interaction will cause the system to weaken below super typhoon status after tau 48 as the system enters the Luzon Strait. An approaching midlatitude trough will weaken the subtropical ridge (str) causing sty 19w to enter a region of competing steering in the Luzon Strait.
  • The available model guidance is in fair agreement with landfall on Luzon near tau 48. GFDN is the southern outlier, making landfall in central Luzon, with JGSM and GFS (avno tracker) models remaining clear of the Luzon coast.
  • After landfall there is more uncertainty in the model fields, with EGRR and ECMWF turning to the south into the South China Sea and NOGAPS continuing into the Luzon Strait towards Mainland China.
  • Further complicating the forecast in the extended period is Typhoon (TY) 20w (Melor) to the east. While not currently forecast to directly interact with sty 19w, the uncertainty introduced into the model fields by TY 20w must be addressed.
  • It is possible that the presence of TY 20w will modify (in conjunction with the approaching mid-latitude trough) the steering ridge for 19w, causing sty 19w to become quasi-stationary in the Luzon Strait, or possibly turning sharply into the western coast of Luzon (as hinted by ECMWF and EGRR model trackers).
  • Maximum significant wave height at 010600z is 29 feet. Next warnings at 011500z, 012100z, 020300z and 020900z. Refer to typhoon 20w (Melor) warnings (wtpn34 pgtw) for six-hourly updates.

wp200919_5day_01OCT-0600

2 Responses to “စူပါတိုင္ဖြန္းမုန္တိုင္း PARMA update”

  1. mmweather Says:

    1. For meteorologists.

    2. 12 hour summary and analysis.

    A. Super Typhoon (STY) 19w (parma) has rapidly intensified and has developed a pin-hole eye. Animated water vapor imagery shows the system has significantly deepened with multiple convective bands wrapping tighter into the well-defined eye. The system is exhibiting excellent poleward outflow into a tropical upper tropospheric trough to the north. Current intensity and position are based on Dvorak intensity fixes from pgtw and rjtd with high confidence. Upper level analysis indicates the system is south of the ridge axis with a divergent point source directly overhead. TY 19w is tracking along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level subtropical ridge to the northeast in a region of low to moderate vertical wind shear.

    3. Forecast reasoning
    a. The forecast reasoning has not changed since the last prognostic reasoning bulletin.

    B. TY 19w is expected to continue along the track described in para 2.A. The environmental conditions will remain favorable for continued intensification up to tau 48, which will be further enhanced by increasing along-track sea surface temperatures. By tau 72, land interaction with the island of Luzon will diminish some of its intensity but the system will otherwise remain a strong typhoon.

    C. After tau 72, sty Parma will weaken slightly as it continues to interact with northeastern luzon’s topography. Once it crosses into Luzon Strait, it will regain/maintain its strong typhoon intensity. During this period, typhoon Parma will slow down its forward motion as a break in the steering ridge develops and possible interaction with typhoon 20w (Melor) commences. Available numeric track guidance are in fair agreement up to tau 48 where they progressively diverge with JGSM, GFS and TCLAPS to the extreme right and NOGAPS, GFDN, WBAR, and EGRR to the far left. This track forecast is just to the left of the middle of the envelope and right of consensus and ECMWF.//


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s