စူပါတိုင္ဖြန္း LUPIT update-20OCT-01

စူပါတိုင္ဖြန္းမုန္တိုင္း LUPIT သည္ ဖိလစ္ပိုင္ပင္လယ္ေျမာက္ပိုင္းသို႕ ဝင္ေရာက္လာခ်ိန္တြင္ ေျခာက္ေသြ႕ေသာေလႏွင့္ ေအးေသာ ပင္လယ္ေရတို႕ေၾကာင့္ အင္အား အဆင့္-၃ (CAT-3) သို႕ ေျပာင္းလဲသတ္မွတ္လိုက္ၿပီျဖစ္ပါသည္။ ေအာက္တိုဘာလ ၂ဝ ရက္ ျမန္မာစံေတာ္ခ်ိန္ နံနက္ ၇ နာရီတြင္ မနီလာၿမိဳ႕၏ အေရွ႕ေျမာက္ဘက္ ၆၄၂  မိုင္သို႕ေရာက္ရွိဗဟိုျပဳေနၿပီး အေနာက္-အေနာက္ေျမာက္ဘက္သို႕ တစ္နာရီလွ်င္ ၁၂ မိုင္ႏွဳန္းျဖင့္ေရြ႕လ်ားလ်က္ရွိေနပါသည္။ မုန္တိုင္း၏ ဗဟိုတြင္ ေလတိုက္ႏွဳန္း တစ္နာရီလွ်င္ ၁၁ဝ မိုင္ႏွဳန္းမွ ၁၃ဝ မိုင္ႏွဳန္းအထိ ရွိေနၿပီး လမ္းေၾကာင္းခန္႕မွန္းခ်က္ သိသိသာသာေျပာင္းလဲသြားျခင္းမရွိပါ။

ယေန႕နံနက္ ျမန္မာစံေတာ္ခ်ိန္ ဝဝး၃ဝ နာရီက ထုတ္ျပန္ေသာ TSR သတိေပးခ်က္အား ေအာက္တြင္ေဖၚျပေပးထားပါသည္။

Storm Alert issued at 19 Oct, 2009 18:00 GMT

Typhoon LUPIT is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.


3 Responses to “စူပါတိုင္ဖြန္း LUPIT update-20OCT-01”

  1. mmweather Says:

    စူပါတိုင္ဖြန္းမုန္တိုင္း LUPIT ဘယ္လိုဆက္ၿပီး ဒုကၡေပးဦးမွာလဲ ?
    view on mmwether group page

  2. mmweather Says:

    Typhoon races to N. Luzon ‘like bullet’
    By Nikko Dizon, Christine Avendaño, Jocelyn Uy
    Philippine Daily Inquirer, Inquirer Northern Luzon
    First Posted 04:22:00 10/20/2009
    Credit link

    စူပါတိုင္ဖြန္းမုန္တိုင္း LUPIT နဲ႕ မလြဲမေသြေတြ႕ႀကံဳရေတာ့မဲ့ ဖိလစ္ပိုင္ႏိုင္ငံမွာ ဘယ္လိုႀကိဳတင္ျပင္ဆင္မႈေတြလုပ္ေနၾကတယ္၊ ေဒသခံလူမ်ားရဲ႕ ခံစားခ်က္ စသည္ျဖင့္ ေလ့လာမွတ္သားႏိုင္ၾကေစရန္ ဒီသတင္းကို ကူးယူတင္ျပေပးလိုက္ျခင္းျဖစ္ပါတယ္။

    Also see similar article Filipinos raise funds for typhoon victims click
    MANILA, Philippines—After tarrying in the Pacific, powerful Typhoon “Ramil” Monday accelerated and bore down on northern Luzon “like a bullet” with a massive amount of rain similar to the record downpour that killed hundreds last month, weathermen said.

    Military and civilian officials put preparations, ongoing since the weekend, into high gear Monday, dispatching rescue boats, trucks, helicopters and emergency relief aid in strategic places up north.

    “I hope the typhoon veers away from the country, but we will prepare for the worst,” said Sen. Richard Gordon, chair of the Philippine National Red Cross in a phone interview.

    “We are not leaving anything to chance. We should learn from our mistakes and save more lives,” Gordon said.

    He appealed to people in low-lying areas: “If you are beside rivers or creeks, get out of there.”

    Packing peak winds of 195 kilometers per hour gusting up to 230 kph, the Category 4 typhoon swirled west northwest toward the country at 17 kph, according to a 4 p.m. bulletin issued by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).

    Ramil, internationally designated “Lupit,” the Filipino word for cruel, had lingered in the Pacific about 1,000 km east of the Philippines, held by a “trough” near Hong Kong until this moved away and allowed the 18th weather disturbance of the season to move along.

    Within hours, Ramil gained strength and quadrupled its speed.

    “It’s like a bullet or a slingshot now that is heading straight to northern Luzon,” Nathaniel Cruz, PAGASA deputy administrator, told reporters.

    Ramil could become a super-typhoon with center winds of up to 200 kph when it hits Cagayan province on Thursday and cuts across northern Luzon in six hours, Cruz said.

    PAGASA chief Prisco Nilo said that with Ramil’s wide circulation, northern and central provinces of Luzon would feel its effects later Tuesday. He said the typhoon was likely to bring some 20 to 25 millimeters of torrential rain per hour.

    Comparable to Ondoy

    “It could be comparable to Ondoy,” Nilo said, referring to the record rainfall the tropical storm (international codename: Ketsana) dumped on Metro Manila on Sept. 26 that inundated large parts of the Philippine capital and killed 380 people during a 24-hour sweep.

    Typhoon “Pepeng” (international codename: Parma) followed on Oct. 3, staying for more than a week as a tropical storm, sparking flooding and landslides and leaving 438 dead and hundreds of thousands homeless in four regions in Luzon.

    The Philippine Air Force Monday airlifted more than 10 tons of rice to villages still isolated by landslides during Pepeng’s weeklong pounding.

    Four PAF helicopters and another from the United Nations brought rice to the villages of Legab in Kabayan town and Takadang in Kibungan town and six other communities in Benguet province, officials said.

    Rains caused some landslides along Halsema Highway Monday, but the Department of Public Works and Highways immediately cleared these.

    Albert Gahid, district engineer, said the agency had orders to keep open all major roads.

    Forced evacuation

    In Pangasinan province, Gov. Amado Espino Jr. directed mayors and police chiefs to conduct preemptive, and if necessary, forcible, evacuation of families in danger zones and low-lying areas.

    “Since the San Roque Dam has no reliable flood warning protocol, the decision to determine suitable evacuation centers will be left to your better judgment and sound discretion,” Espino said in an advisory to local government and police officials.

    “You are advised to stay alert, be proactive and to take all precautionary measures to secure your respective constituents to prevent unnecessary casualties,” he said.

    In Ilocos Norte province, the Laoag City government started preparing rescue equipment and relief packs.

    Mayor Michael Fariñas asked all department heads in the city government to be ready and have their mobile phones open at all times in case disaster strikes. The city received 2,460 relief packs and 600 packs of clothing from Manila last week.

    In Isabela province, more than 500 Army soldiers and trainees were put on alert to help in rescue and relief operations in Cagayan Valley.

    Blue alert

    Some 60,000 soldiers or half of the entire strength of the Armed Forces of the Philippines were placed on “blue alert,” requiring the men to stay in camps in case of emergency, said military spokesperson Lt. Col. Romeo Brawner Jr.

    “We are reinforcing food stocks especially in areas that could be cut off like Batanes and Cagayan Valley,” said Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro Jr., head of the National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC).

    As of press time, two UH-1H helicopters already took position in Tarlac province while a Huey II and a Sikorsky aircraft were ready to take off anytime from the Villamor Air Base in Pasay City.

    Four other aircraft have been deployed to various points in Luzon, said Philippine Air Force spokesperson Lt. Col. Gerardo Zamudio.

    An F-27 Fokker medium lift plane and a C-130 cargo plane have also been prepared should there be a need for more air support, he said.

    The Navy has also allotted 18 rubber boats, 13 M35 trucks, two amphibious trucks and two amphibian crafts, said Navy spokesperson Lt. Col. Edgard Arevalo. The Red Cross deployed 50 rescue boats.

    Interim dam protocol

    National Power Corp. (Napocor) announced that it had begun to implement an interim protocol for the release of water from the San Roque Dam to prevent a repeat of the massive flooding in Pangasinan that the facility worsened when it opened its spillways.

    The protocol called for the lowering of the high water level at the San Roque Dam by two meters from 280 meters above sea level (masl) to 278 masl. This meant that Napocor could begin releasing water at 278 masl.

    This move would “increase the capability of the flood control function of the dam,” said Napocor vice president Melburgo S. Chiu in a briefing.

    He said that the extra two meters would enable the dam to hold an extra 28 million cubic meters of water, thus increasing its storage capacity.

    As of Monday, the San Roque Dam was still releasing water at some 400 cms in preparation for the super-typhoon, as the water level was estimated at 279 masl.

    Chiu also pointed out that warnings would be issued six hours—from the previous four hours—before water is released from the dam.

    These notices will be issued to the media and the NDCC, as well as to the disaster coordinating councils at the provincial and municipal levels.

    “Also, mobile warning stations and fixed warning stations should repeat the warning using local dialect one hour before actual water release is to be made,” the protocol read. With reports from Amy R. Remo in Manila and Delmar Cariño, Gabriel Cardinoza, Cristina Arzadon and Villamor Visaya Jr., Inquirer Northern Luzon

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