22OCT-တိုင္ဖြန္းမုန္တိုင္း LUPIT update-01

တိုင္ဖြန္းမုန္တိုင္း LUPIT သည္ ဖိလစ္ပိုင္ႏိုင္ငံ မနီလာၿမိဳ႕ အေရွ႕ေျမာက္ဘက္ ၃၅၅ မိုင္ခန္႕တြင္ ဗဟိုျပဳေနၿပီး၊ လြန္ခဲ့ေသာ ၆ နာရီအတြင္းက အေနာက္ဘက္သို႕ တစ္နာရီလွ်င္  အေနာက္-အေနာက္ေတာင္ဘက္သို႕ တစ္နာရီ ၆ မိုင္ႏွဳန္းျဖင့္ ေရြ႕လ်ားလွ်က္ရွိပါသည္။ ဖိလစ္ပိုင္ႏိုင္ငံ၏ အေရွ႕ေျမာက္ဘက္ကမ္းရိုးတန္းသို႕ စတင္ဝင္ေရာက္တိုက္ခတ္လွ်က္ရွိေနၿပီး ကုန္းတြင္းသို႕ မုန္တိုင္း၏ဗဟိုခ်က္ တစ္နာရီလွ်င္ အျမင့္ဆံုး ၁၈၅ ကီလိုမီတာ ၁၁၅ မိုင္ႏွဳန္းျဖင့္ ျဖတ္ေက်ာ္ဝင္ေရာက္ၿပီးသည့္အခါ အေနာက္-ေျမာက္ဘက္သို႕ ဆက္လက္ေရြ႕လ်ားၿပီး ေတာင္တရုတ္ပင္လယ္သို႕ ဝင္ေရာက္မည္ဟုခန္႕မွန္းထားပါသည္။

မုန္တိုင္း၏ အရြယ္အစားမွာ ပိုမိုႀကီးလာၿပီး အခ်င္း ၉၂၅ ကီလိုမီတာ (၅၇၅ မိုင္) ရွိေနၿပီျဖစ္ပါသည္။ လက္ရွိမုန္တိုင္းအဆင့္ CAT-2 သို႕ ျပန္လည္ေရာက္ရွိလာႏိုင္ေၾကာင္း TSR ထုတ္ျပန္ခ်က္ အမွတ္ ၂၄ တြင္ေဖၚျပထားပါသည္။

ျမန္မာစံေတာ္ခ်ိန္ ယေန႕နံနက္ ဝဝး၃ဝ နာရီတြင္ ထုတ္ျပန္ေသာ TSR သတိေပးခ်က္တြင္ ဖိလစ္ပိုင္ႏိုင္ငံအား CAT-1 အဆင့္ႏွင့္ အထက္ျဖင့္ ဝင္ေရာက္တိုက္ခတ္ႏိုင္ေျခရာခိုင္ႏွဳန္း ၆ဝ% အထိ  ျမင့္တက္လာၿပီး၊ Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E) Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)  Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E) San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E) တို႕အတြက္ အဝါေရာင္အဆင့္ ျဖစ္ႏိုင္ေျခ သတိေပးခ်က္အသီးသီးထုတ္ျပန္ထားပါသည္။ TSR သတိေပးခ်က္ 21OCT-1800GMT မူရင္းအားေအာက္တြင္ေဖၚျပေပးထားပါသည္။

Storm Alert issued at 21 Oct, 2009 18:00 GMT

Typhoon LUPIT is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours

Storm Alert issued at 21 Oct, 2009 18:00 GMT

Typhoon LUPIT is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E)
probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

022-activetrack

One Response to “22OCT-တိုင္ဖြန္းမုန္တိုင္း LUPIT update-01”


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