စကၤာပူအေရွ႕ပင္လယ္မွေလဖိအားနည္းရပ္ဝန္း မုန္တိုင္းျဖစ္လာႏိုင္

စကၤာပူ၏ အေရွ႕ေျမာက္ယြန္းယြန္း မိုင္ ၃ဝဝ ခန္႕တြင္ ျဖစ္ေပၚေနေသာ ေလဖိအားနည္းရပ္ဝန္းသည္ လာမည့္ ၂၄ နာရီအတြင္း ပိုမိုအားေကာင္းလာကာ အပူပိုင္းမုန္တိုင္းအျဖစ္သို႕ ေရာက္ရွိလာႏိုင္ေၾကာင္း JTWC မွ ေၾကျငာထားပါသည္။ ၄င္းသည္ ေျမာက္-အေနာက္ေျမာက္ဘက္သို႕ တစ္နာရီလွ်င္ ၁ဝ မိုင္ႏွဳန္းျဖင့္ ေရြ႕လွ်ားလွ်က္ရွိေနေၾကာင္း ေၾကျငာခ်က္တြင္ေဖၚျပထားပါသည္။

JTWC ၏ ထုတ္ျပန္ေၾကျငာခ်က္မူရင္းအားေအာက္တြင္ေဖၚျပေပးထားပါသည္။

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS OF 4.5N 107.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
  • AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
  • WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
  • METSAT IMAGERY AT 231030Z INDICATES A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 4.5N 107.2E. THE SYSTEM ISMOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.7N 107.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.5N 107.2E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM NORTHEAST OF SINGAPORE.
  • ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING NEAR A QUICKLY IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
  • A 230156Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC LLCC WITH CENTER WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
  • ADDITIONALLY, THE ASCAT PASS SHOWS 30-KNOT PERIPHERIAL WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST (ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY COLD SURGE THROUGH THE SOUTH CHINA SEA) AND 20-25 KNOTS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER.
  • FINALLY, A 230931Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS CONVERGING TOWARDS THE LLCC, ILLUSTRATING THE IMPROVING NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION.
  • UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND FAVORABLY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
  • MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
  • MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
  • DUE TO CONSOLIDATION OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE IMPROVING NATURE OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 241100Z.

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