New Comments, Re:Japanese Quake and Tsunami Predicted July 22 2009

ေနၾကတ္ျခင္းႏွင့္ ငလွ်င္လႈပ္ျခင္းဆိုင္ရာသီအိုရီအား စတင္ခဲ့သူ Britton
LaRoche ၏ Blog ေပၚမွ comments မ်ား ထပ္မံရရွိသျဖင့္ ေလ့လာဖတ္ရႈႏိုင္ရန္ ဆက္လက္၍ ေဖၚျပေပးသြားပါမည္။

Forwarded conversation
Subject: New Comment, Re: Japanese Quake and Tsunami Predicted July 22 2009
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From: GarageGames
Date: Wed, Aug 12, 2009 at 4:38 AM

Britton LaRoche commented on Japanese Quake and Tsunami Predicted July
22 2009 (http://www.garagegames.com/community/blogs/view/15946/8#comment-134347):

@Praven, everyone lost interest. Everyone but me that is. I’ve been expecting something like this. The hardest thing for me to explain was why we have a delay (after the gravitational pull) Seems to me we should have something happen on the same day. But we don’t. I now think its a cumulative effect, you get the near the same pull day after day and then it breaks.

@U Win, I was thinking about you and the rest of Burma yesterday. I really hate to make comments on areas I did not predict back in January. But the bottom line is you had several quakes in that area. What we are seeing is simple, small quakes become big quakes with the next lunar event. The next event is August 19th, but we approach perigee on the 16th and my cumulative force formula shows us back up to the level we were on August 9th, on August 16th. So I’d expect another big one near there too.

@Jason, I expect the biggest quake yet to come in Japan. More than likely it will be between August 16th and August 23rd. I’m guessing 7.9 +. It will hit near the same spots it hit on July 22nd, August 9th and August 10th.

I expect the sparks to fly in the near future. Apparently my mathematical model is not perfect. I expected 7+ earthquakes today and tomorrow. I think the fall off may be faster than I expect. But what is correct (so far) is the day of the peak.

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From: GarageGames
Date: Wed, Aug 12, 2009 at 7:48 AM

Britton LaRoche commented on Japanese Quake and Tsunami Predicted July
22 2009 (http://www.garagegames.com/community/blogs/view/15946/8#comment-134367):

I’ve been studying the lunar path and earthquakes for about 6 months. Naturally, I’m familiar with plenty of opensource astronomical tools. I’d like to show you the position of the sun and moon for the Lunar perigee on August 19th and August 20th.

I chose Japan as the location and I’m facing East at about 19:00 HRS UT. As you can see the Moon is very close to the Sun. Its not an eclipse but its darn close. This makes me pretty sure we will see the big fire works with in the next 10 days.

Above we see the moon is very close to the Sun on the August 19th perigee. Its not a total solar eclipse or a Syzygy, but it will have higher than normal tides associated with it.

Now we see the day after and that the moon is still very close to the Sun. This is why I say the moon is still very closely following the eclipse path of July 22nd. It will carry in motion the final blow to the tectonic plates in this region. That is why I’d put big bucks on anyone willing to take bets, that we will have 7+ quakes shortly after this event.

If I’m right, do I get a cookie? If the whole world bought me a cookie I’d be set for life. Or better yet if these same people donated a dollar I’d have more than enough to build the worlds best earthquake simulator.

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From: GarageGames
Date: Wed, Aug 12, 2009 at 11:07 AM

Arun Shanker commented on Japanese Quake and Tsunami Predicted July 22 2009 (http://www.garagegames.com/community/blogs/view/15946/8#comment-134375):

everyone lost interest
Mr LaROche in fact I haven’t I have been visiting this site frequently http://www.jma.go.jp/en/quake/20090811052120391-110507.html and check the link it is about the larger quake
Arun

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From: GarageGames
Date: Wed, Aug 12, 2009 at 3:30 PM

sven commented on Japanese Quake and Tsunami Predicted July 22 2009 (http://www.garagegames.com/community/blogs/view/15946/8#comment-134393):

The theory looks interesting. Actually, you are not the only one predicting a major Quake for Japan in the next days.

At the day of the solar eclipse, the air-ion measurements near Tokyo have been fluctuating quite a lot, and the agency of the website also posed a warning for an M7-M8 EQ in the Tokyo metropolitan area.
http://translate.google.co.jp/translate?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.e-pisco.jp%2Fr_ion%2Fattention%2F090811.html&sl=ja&tl=en&hl=en&ie=UTF-8

A different EQ warning for Tokyo did I find here:
http://feww.wordpress.com/2009/05/18/earthquake-forecast-tokyo-japan/

However, all state the same – a M7-M8 Quake in Japan near Tokyo.

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From: GarageGames
Date: Wed, Aug 12, 2009 at 7:18 PM

Britton LaRoche commented on Japanese Quake and Tsunami Predicted July
22 2009 (http://www.garagegames.com/community/blogs/view/15946/8#comment-134401):

@Arun, thanks for the link. We did have a 6.6 yesterday in Japan and that is rare. Its pretty close to the spot I expect the bigger quake. The thing is, the 7+ quakes are gone for now. I expect a return of 7+ quakes between August 17th and August 24th. This adds power to my theory as I can explain why the 7+ quakes are gone for now.

@Sven, all this data is very interesting. What I find fascinating is that these methods are what I call “reactive prediction” in other words they do not explain why we have the quakes and cannot predict quakes years in advance. These methods react to changes in the environment a few days before the quake. My theory allows us to predict quakes decades in advance.

If my theory is correct then a triple eclipse over tectonic plates is sure to produce 7+ quakes after the third Syzygy. We can also use it to predict factors that may affect a quake (outside of an eclipse) such as repeated events that produce larger than normal tides. Back to back lunar eclipses and perigee for example.

This does what current science thinks impossible. We can plan for a earthquake disaster years in advance.

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From: GarageGames
Date: Wed, Aug 12, 2009 at 8:52 PM

Britton LaRoche commented on Japanese Quake and Tsunami Predicted July
22 2009 (http://www.garagegames.com/community/blogs/view/15946/8#comment-134407):

Looks like Jessica Simpson was rattled by the 6.6 in Japan on August 11th. She should read my blog and leave, the big one is coming.
http://www.popeater.com/2009/08/11/stars-get-caught-in-japan-earthquake/

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From: GarageGames
Date: Wed, Aug 12, 2009 at 11:46 PM

sven commented on Japanese Quake and Tsunami Predicted July 22 2009 (http://www.garagegames.com/community/blogs/view/15946/8#comment-134425):

I just checked the occurences of previous great quakes with historic solar eclipses:
http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEcatmax/SEcatmax.html
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/world/historical.php

However, it is really difficult to find a good match between both lists..

Here some previous major quakes in Japan
1896 06 15 – Sanriku, Japan – M 8.5
1923 09 01 – Kanto (Kanto), Japan
1927 03 07 – Tango, Japan – M 7.6
1933 03 02 – Sanriku, Japan – M 8.4
1943 09 10 – Tottori, Japan – M 7.4

And the closest long eclipse matches:
1883 Oct 30 23:50:54
1886 Aug 29 12:55:23
1901 May 18 05:33:48
1919 May 29 13:08:55
1937 Jun 08 20:41:02
1955 Dec 14 07:02:25

Long eclipse means that the moon is close to the earth I guess..

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From: GarageGames
Date: Thu, Aug 13, 2009 at 12:16 AM

Britton LaRoche commented on Japanese Quake and Tsunami Predicted July
22 2009 (http://www.garagegames.com/community/blogs/view/15946/8#comment-134429):

@Sven,

Your help is greatly appreciated! You are right It is not easy to find and match the data. It requires a good knowledge of geography and latitude longitude readings. Since there are no visible quake maps that date back year after year you have to do it all in your head. There are a few rules to matching the eclipse data to the quake data.

1. The solar eclipse has to be in the same region.
2. There does seem to be a delayed effect, up to 8 days after the eclipse. The moon is at a about 96 degree angle to the sun after 8 days.
3. If you have a lunar eclipse after the solar eclipse (you have a second Syzgy) followed by the next perigee. That adds another 29 days after the eclipse where you have a combined effect. So you need to look for lunar eclipses after the solar eclipse.
4. If you have a lunar eclipse before the eclipse you could see greater earthquake data for that eclipse.
5. Total Solar eclipses seem to have a bigger effect, you can focus on those to start with.
6. Most important: If the eclipse does not pass directly over a tectonic plate or fault line its probably a dud. If you cant get a quake ever in that region, then the eclipse wont cause one. In other words its best to concentrate on the quake zones. Japan, China and the middle east (even Europe) are awesome places to look. I’d say just about any eclipse over the Eurasian Tectonic plate will cause a quake of some sort.

Since the earth rotates rapidly I think the region is important for the Solar eclipse but less so for the lunar eclipse, it will pretty much cover the globe with its effects in 24 hours. To me the solar eclipse and lunar perigee during the day (29 days after the solar eclipse) are the most important. The lunar eclipse just keeps the ball moving so to speak, it keeps reducing the tectonic friction.

Earthquake data is easily obtained here:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/eqarchives/significant/sig_2009.php

Solar Eclipse Data is here
http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/solar.html

Lunar Eclipse data is here
http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/lunar.html

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From: GarageGames
Date: Thu, Aug 13, 2009 at 12:57 AM

Britton LaRoche commented on Japanese Quake and Tsunami Predicted July
22 2009 (http://www.garagegames.com/community/blogs/view/15946/8#comment-134433):

Here are the ones I’ve predicted so far (updating data so its not lost):

UTC DATE-TIME LAT LON Depth Mag Region

ေနၾကတ္ျခင္းႏွင့္ငလွ်င္လႈပ္ျခင္း ဆက္စပ္မႈရွိ/မရွိ သီအိုရီအေပၚ သံုးသပ္ရႈျမင္ျခင္းမ်ား

Britton LaRoche ၏ ၂ဝဝ၉ ခုႏွစ္ ဇူလိုင္လ ၂၂ ရက္ေန႕တြင္ ေနၾကတ္ျခင္းႏွင့္ ငလွ်င္ႀကီးမ်ားလႈပ္ကာ ဆူနာမီလွဳိင္းႀကီးမ်ားပါ ေနာက္ဆက္တြဲ  က်ေရာက္လာႏိုင္သည္ ဟူသည့္ သီအိုရီအေပၚ ေနာက္ဆက္တြဲသံုးသပ္ခ်က္မ်ား ထပ္မံေပၚထြက္လာသျဖင့္ တိုက္ရိုက္ ျပန္လည္ ေဖၚျပလိုက္ရပါသည္၊ အခ်ိန္မမီေတာ့သျဖင့္ ဘာသာျပန္ဆိုေပးျခင္း မျပဳလုပ္ေတာ့ပါ –

ဇူလိုင္လ ၁၇ ရက္ေန႕တြင္ Ronaldo Corsino မွ Britton LaRoche ၏ Blog-Post တြင္ ေအာက္ပါအတိုင္း သံုးသပ္ေရးသားခဲ့ပါသည္ –

This information is thought provoking but I cannot ignore the possibility of the author’s theory in this prediction – that is if the earth’s plate would react aggressively in the coming eclipse. The position of the author in sharing his own studies/research to the public is not a rumor to ignore but a warning to be prepared of. The complex structure of the earth, the neigbhoring planets and the whole of the universe is still mystery for us. Its transformation I believe would take place mainly because of its relativity to the other. We know that gravitational pull causes weather changes, tidal level changes and possibly tectonic plate movements. I pray that the earthquake must not big enough to cause a tsunami.

ဇူလိုင္လ ၁၈ ရက္ေန႕တြင္ ဂ်ပန္ႏိုင္ငံ Fussa ေလတပ္အေျခစိုက္စခန္းမွ အေမရိကန္ ေလတပ္တပ္ဖြဲ႕ဝင္ Jason Ring ကလည္း ေအာက္ပါအတိုင္း ေရးသားခဲ့ပါသည္ –

07/18/2009 (1:57 pm)
Evening Mr LaRoche. My name is Jason and I serve on active duty in the USAF. My family and I are currently stationed at an AF installation in Fussa, Tokyo (Kanto Plains). During a recent phone conversation with my parents, they talked about the 22 Jul 09 eclipse in addition to the discussions going on about the possibility of a sizable earth quake in Japan. So, I jumped on my favorite search engine “Google” to find out more, which is how I ran across your page. I’m no scientist or computer engineer, by any stretch of the imagination, and have a “dated” familiarity regarding the topics of plate tectonics and astronomy with my college studies (dating myself back to ’98). I’ve read through your articles and links to try and learn more about this topic to help “educate” myself on something which may or may not impact my family.

For what it’s worth, I do appreciate your research and discussions on this. You’re comment on post #14 (“..If people do take precaution on July 22nd and it saves lives then I’ll be very happy. On the other hand if things get out of hand and it causes chaos and confusion then I’ll be very upset, that is not my intent..”) caught my attention and I, for one, find you to be doing this for genuine reasons. For that, you have my thanks and attention.

Whether this event occurs or not, your research and advocacy on this have led me to take some steps to prepare (ie getting canned food, water, extra baby food & diapers, etc.) my family and I for next week.. not get my family in “chaos” mode or try to spread chaos. Hopefully, the 22nd to the 28th will be “uneventful”, but should something occur know that your “activities” helped prepare a family or two out here :).

Kind regards.
Jason

07/18/2009 (10:28 pm)
Ohayou gozaimas LaRoche-san! For what it is worth, what you are doing is scientifically based (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method). You don’t have to be a “scientist”, branded or tagged, to use the scientific method. I agree whole heartedly that the scientists in the career field or specialties have the training and qualifications to “officially” speak, per se, on matters yet anyone and everyone should be a participant in using the scientific principles and developing “theories” in whatever en devours they pursue. You’re following these principles and have developed a theory that, coincidentally, is shared by scientists.

If your tool proves a useful tool, then it is my hope that it is used as a model to emulate. If it doesn’t, then it is my hope that your efforts will help in the search and development of such a tool that would give warning to those who may be in danger from a natural disaster. As meteorologists have developed tools to aid in the identification and tracking of thunder storms, tornadoes, hurricanes, cyclones, etc., (same can be said for volcanoes) it’s my hope that a tool may one day be found to accurately identify earthquakes. I hope that your efforts with this endeavor and theory, whether it’s proved or dis-proved, will be received for what it is. A theory generated by an inquiring mind using the scientific method as their guide.
Thanks again.
Very respectfully.
Jason

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Donley

07/18/2009 (9:39 pm)

I second, third, or fourth the respect to you for what you have shown to the masses. I have ZERO qualifications, yet, have been promoting this theory for months! Not only that, but, I joined this community PURELY because I saw your information. I play NO games. Just wanted to talk with you.
Everything you say makes sense. I think, however, that this one will affect a wider portion of the planet.
I’ve been paying particularly close attention to the seismic actions of North America for the last few months, having nothing to do with science. Just feelings.
Could the forces you speak of not so profoundly affect the opposite side of the planet so as to influence activity here? Even a quick glance at the current USGS sites will tell you that activity here is at a peak.
My guess is that the major event you speak of will coincide with a major North American event.
Cheers,
Don

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သူတို႕ ေရးသားခဲ့သည္မ်ားမွ အတိုခ်ဳပ္၍ ေကာက္ႏွဳတ္ေဖၚျပရမည္ဆိုလွ်င္ Britton LaRoche ၏ ေျမငလွ်င္ႏွင့္ ေနၾကတ္ျခင္းဆိုင္ရာ စမ္းသပ္မႈသည္ သီအိုရီသက္သက္မွ်သာျဖစ္ေသာ္လည္း ဤသီအိုရီ မွန္/မမွန္ကို ျငင္းဆိုႏိုင္ျခင္း မရွိပါ။ သိပၸံပညာရွင္အခ်ိဳ႕သည္ အလားတူ သီအိုရီမ်ဳိး စမ္းသပ္ခဲ့ၾကေသာ္လည္း ေျမငလွ်င္ႏွင့္ပတ္သက္သည့္ ႀကိဳတင္ခန္႕မွန္းခ်က္မ်ဳိးတြင္ ေအာင္ျမင္စြာ သက္ေသျပႏိုင္ျခင္းလည္း မရွိခဲ့ၾကေသးပါ။ သို႕ေသာ္ ဘာမွ ျဖစ္ႏိုင္မည္မဟုတ္ပါဟူ၍လည္း မည္သည့္ သိပၸံပညာရွင္ကမွ အတိအက် ျငင္းဆိုထားျခင္းမရွိပါ။

ေျမငလွ်င္လႈပ္ခတ္ျခင္းကို ႀကိဳတင္ခန္႕မွန္း၍မရႏိုင္ပါ ဟူသည့္ မူကို လက္ကိုင္ထားေနၾကေသာ သိပၸံပညာရွင္ အမ်ားစုက ႀကိဳတင္ခန္႕မွန္းႏိုင္မည့္နည္းလမ္းကိုကား ရွာေဖြစမ္းသပ္ျခင္းမျပဳၾကဘဲ ရွိၾကသည္ ဟု Jason က အျပစ္တင္ထားသည္ကိုေတြ႕ရပါသည္။

လူအမ်ားအတြက္ ႀကိဳတင္ခန္႕မွန္းေပးျခင္းျဖင့္ သဘာဝေဘးအႏၱရာယ္၏ရန္မွ ေရွာင္ရွားႏိုင္ၾကေစရန္ ရည္ရြယ္ခ်က္ျဖင့္ သူ၏တီထြင္စမ္းသပ္မႈကို သူ၏ BLOG POST ျဖင့္ ေဖၚျပအသိေပးျခင္းသည္ ေကာလဟလ ဟု မေခၚဆိုႏိုင္ပါ ဟုလည္းေရးသားထားၾကသည္ကို ဖတ္ရႈႏိုင္ပါသည္။

ထို႕ျပင္ ျပည္သူလူထုမွ စိုးရိမ္ထိတ္လန္႕ျခင္းမ်ားျဖစ္ရမည့္အစား သဘာဝေဘးအႏၱရာယ္ျဖစ္လာႏိုင္သည့္အတြက္ လိုအပ္ေသာ ႀကိဳတင္ျပင္ဆင္မႈမ်ား – အစာေရစာ ႀကိဳတင္ ဝယ္ယူစုေဆာင္းထားျခင္း၊ ေျမငလွ်င္လႈပ္လွ်င္ ေဆာင္ရန္/ေရွာင္ရန္မ်ားကို ႀကိဳတင္ သိရွိေအာင္ ေလ့လာထားျခင္း ၊ အနည္းဆံုး သတိရွိရွိ ေနထိုင္ၾကရန္ – အမႈမဲ့အမွတ္မဲ့ မေနၾကရန္ စသည္ျဖင့္ သတိတရားလက္ကိုင္ထားလာၾကမည္ျဖစ္ပါသည္။

Britton LaRoche ၏ စမ္းသပ္တင္ျပမႈသီအိုရီ မွန္ကန္ေၾကာင္း သက္ေသျပႏိုင္လွ်င္ ေနာင္အနာဂတ္၌ ေျမငလွ်င္ႀကီးမ်ားလႈပ္ခတ္မႈႏွင့္ ဆက္စပ္ျဖစ္ေပၚလာႏိုင္ေသာ ဆူနာမီလွဳိင္းႀကီးမ်ား၏ အႏၱရာယ္ကို ပိုမိုတိက်စြာခန္႕မွန္းႏိုင္ေသာ ကြန္ပ်ဴတာ Simulator မ်ား ေပၚေပါက္လာႏိုင္ပါသည္။ ၄င္း၏စမ္းသပ္တင္ျပေသာ သီအိုရီ မွန္ကန္မႈမရွိလွ်င္လည္း သိပၸံပညာရွင္မ်ားႏွင့္ ကြန္ပ်ဴတာပညာရွင္မ်ားပူးေပါင္း၍ သဘာဝေဘးအႏၱရာယ္မ်ားကို ႀကိဳတင္ေထာက္လွမ္းႏိုင္ေသာ ကြန္ပ်ဴတာ simulator နည္းပညာမ်ားကို အသံုးျပဳႏိုင္သည့္ေခတ္တစ္ေခတ္ မၾကာမီေပၚေပါက္လာေတာ့မည္ဟု ယံုၾကည္ပါေၾကာင္း တင္ျပလိုက္ရပါသည္။

22eclipse

Major-minor-T-Plates-1200px

ဇူလိုင္ ၂၂ ရက္ ေနၾကတ္ျခင္းႏွင့္ဆက္စပ္ျဖစ္ေပၚလာႏိုင္ေသာ အႏၱရာယ္အား သတိျပဳေရွာင္ရွားႏိုင္ရန္

ေအာက္မွာေဖၚျပထားတဲ့ ၂၂ ဇူလိုင္ေနၾကတ္မဲ့ အေျခအေနနဲ႕ ဆက္စပ္ျဖစ္ေပၚလာႏိုင္တယ္ ဆိုတဲ့ ေျမငလွ်င္နဲ႕ ဆူနာမီေတြရဲ႕ ကိစၥကိုေတာ့ သိပၸံပညာရွင္မ်ားက ျဖစ္ႏိုင္ေျခမရွိေၾကာင္း၊ ငလွ်င္ကို ႀကိဳတင္ခန္႕မွန္းတြက္ခ်က္လို႕ မရႏိုင္ေၾကာင္း တညီတညြတ္ထဲ ဆံုးျဖတ္ခဲ့ၾကတယ္လို႕ သိရပါတယ္။

စကၤာပူႏိုင္ငံ Earth Observatory of Singapore (EOS) က Professor Kerry Sieh ရဲ႕ ၁၉ဝဝ ခုႏွစ္က စ လို႕ျပင္းအားအဆင့္ ၈ ႏွင့္ အထက္ ရွိတဲ့ ငလွ်င္ႀကီးမ်ား ၈၂ ႀကိမ္လႈပ္ခဲ့ေၾကာင္း၊ ေနၾကတ္တဲ့အခ်ိန္နဲ႕နီးနီးစပ္စပ္ တိုက္ဆိုင္လႈပ္ခဲ့တာကေတာ့ ၂ ႀကိမ္သာရွိေၾကာင္း၊ အခု ေနၾကတ္တာေၾကာင့္ ငလွ်င္နဲ႕ ဆူနာမီ ျဖစ္လာႏိုင္တယ္ဆိုတဲ့ အေၾကာင္းနဲ႕ပတ္သက္လို႕ သိပၸံနည္းက် သက္ေသျပႏိုင္တာမရွိေၾကာင္း စသည္ျဖင့္ အေသးစိတ္ ရွင္းျပခဲ့ၿပီးျဖစ္ပါတယ္။

သို႕ေပမဲ့ ပေရာ္ဖက္ဆာ Kerry ကဘဲ Nanyang Technological University (NTU) ရဲ႕ အ႑ဝါေဗဒ ေလ့လာေရး အဖြဲ႕ ကရွာေဖြေတြ႕ရွိခဲ့တဲ့ အင္ဒိုနီးရွားႏိုင္ငံ ဆူမၾတာေဒသ ပင္လယ္ၾကမ္းျပင္ေအာက္က သႏၱာေတြရဲ႕ ပင္စည္ေတြမွာ ျဖစ္ေပၚတဲ့ လကၡဏာအမွတ္အသားေတြျဖစ္ေပၚမႈ အေပၚေလ့လာေတြ႕ရွိခ်က္အရ လာမဲ့ ဆယ္စုႏွစ္ အနည္းငယ္အတြင္း ဆူမၾတာ အေနာက္ဘက္ေဒသမွာ ႀကီးမားတဲ့ ငလွ်င္နဲ႕ ဆူနာမီႀကီးမ်ား အႏၱရာယ္က်ေရာက္ႏိုင္ေၾကာင္း ေအာက္ ဒုတိယ ေကာက္ႏွဳတ္ခ်က္ Prehistoric Record Improves Forecast of Large West Sumatran Earthquake and Tsunami မွာေရးသားထားခဲ့တာကလဲ ရွိေနျပန္တာေၾကာင့္ က်ေနာ္တို႕ အေနနဲ႕ အဲဒီရက္ေရာက္သည္အထိ ဆက္ၿပီး ေစာင့္ၾကည့္ရဦးမွာ ျဖစ္ပါတယ္။

အခု ေနၾကတ္ျခင္းနဲ႕ ငလွ်င္ႀကီး ဆက္စပ္လႈပ္ခတ္လာႏိုင္တယ္ဆိုတဲ့ သီအိုရီကို စတင္ ေရးသားခဲ့သူ Britton LaRoche ကလဲ ျဖစ္ႏိုင္ေျခရွိတဲ့ ေဒသမွာ ေနထိုင္သူမ်ားအေနနဲ႕ သတိထားၾကဘို႕ ေျပာရံုကလြဲရင္ သူ႕အေနနဲ႕ (သိပၸံပညာရွင္တစ္ဦးလဲ မဟုတ္ သတိေပးခ်က္ေတြ-ေၾကျငာခ်က္ေတြကို ထုတ္ျပန္ႏိုင္သူ အာဏာပိုင္တစ္ဦးလဲ မဟုတ္တာေၾကာင့္ ) ဘာမွ ထပ္ေျပာစရာမရွိပါဘူး ၊ အဲဒီေန႕ ၂ဝဝ၉ခုႏွစ္ ဇူလိုင္လ ၂၂ ရက္ေန႕ မွာေနၾကတ္တာျဖစ္တဲ့အခါ ဇူလိုင္လ ၃ဝ ရက္ေန႕ေလာက္အထိ ဆက္ၿပီး သတိနဲ႕ ေနထိုင္သြားၾကရန္သာ အႀကံေပးလိုပါတယ္ လို႕ ေျပာထားခဲ့ပါတယ္။ သူကေတာ့ Simulator Model တည္ေဆာက္သူတစ္ဦးျဖစ္တဲ့ အားေလ်ာ္စြာ သူ႕ Simulator က ထြက္ေပၚလာတဲ့ စိတ္ဝင္စားစရာ ပံုေတြနဲ႕ ဗီဒီယိုေတြကိုေတာ့ ေနာက္လာမဲ့ လအနည္းငယ္အတြင္း တင္ျပေပးခ်င္ပါတယ္ လို႕ သူ႕ရဲ႕ Blog ေပၚက  latest comment မွာ ေရးထားတာ ေတြ႕ရပါတယ္။

Tokai Earthquakes အေၾကာင္း ၂ဝဝ၆ ခုႏွစ္ ႏိုဝင္ဘာလ ၂၂ ရက္ေန႕က http://my.opera.com/nielsol/blog/2006/11/22/tokai-earthquakes မွာေရးသားခဲ့တဲ့ Ole Nielsen ကေတာ့ ေအာက္မွာ ေဖၚျပထားတဲ့ တတိယ ေဆာင္းပါး Solar Eclips and Earthquakes ? မွာ “That a Tokai Earthquake could occur at any moment” as I wrote in a post here already a couple of years ago is another matter, but putting a specific date to it for whatever reason is going too far. So far scientists have not found (or proved) any statistically significant correlation between solar eclipses and earthquakes. Tokai ငလွ်င္ ဘယ္ေတာ့ ထပ္လႈပ္မယ္ဆိုတဲ့ ေန႕ အတိအက်ေျပာဘို႕ကေတာ့ လံုးဝလြယ္တဲ့ ကိစၥမဟုတ္ပါဘူး သိပၸံပညာရွင္ေတြကလဲ ေနၾကတ္တာနဲ႕ ငလွ်င္လႈပ္တာရဲ႕ ဆက္စပ္မႈကို အခုအခ်ိန္အထိ သက္ေသျပႏိုင္ျခင္းမရွိေသး(သို႕မဟုတ္) ရွာေဖြေတြ႕ရွိျခင္း မရွိေသးဘူး လို႕ ေရးထားပါတယ္။

ေကာင္းပါၿပီ ..

အဲဒီေတာ့ က်ေနာ္တို႕ကလဲ ဒီပညာရွင္ႀကီးမ်ား အတည္ျပဳႏိုင္ဘို႕ ခက္ခဲေနတဲ့ ဇူလိုင္ ၂၂ ရက္ေန႕ ေနၾကတ္တာကေန ငလွ်င္ႀကီးမ်ား/ဆူနာမီလွဳိင္းႀကီးမ်ား ဆက္စပ္ျဖစ္ေပၚလာႏိုင္မယ္-မလာႏိုင္ဘူးဆိုတာကို က်ေနာ္တို႕လဲ ေဝခြဲဆံုးျဖတ္ဖို႕ရာ ခက္ခဲေၾကာင္းသိထားၿပီး သတိဝီရိယေလးနဲ႕ ေနထိုင္ၾကဘို႕ တိုက္တြန္းလိုပါေၾကာင္း ထပ္မံ ေရးသားတင္ျပေပးလိုက္ပါတယ္။

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Rumour about an Earthquake-Tsunami on 22 July 2009 Unfounded – 15-Apr-2009

The Earth Observatory of Singapore (EOS) has received several inquiries from the media and the general public about a rumour circulating in emails and blogs recently that a major tsunami triggered by a solar eclipse on July 22nd 2009 will devastate the southeast Asian region.

EOS affirms that, to date, scientists have not found any significant correlation between solar eclipses and earthquakes. Since 1900, for example, of 82 earthquakes greater than magnitude 8 worldwide, only two occurred close to the time of a solar eclipse.  However, these were not only partial eclipses but also far from the locations of the earthquakes.

At present, no scientific methods or technologies exist that can pinpoint precisely the timing, location or magnitude of earthquakes. Longer-term forecasts, however, have been made on the basis of scientific information. For example, scientists from the Earth Observatory of Singapore and their Indonesian colleagues have forecast that another large earthquake off the west coast of Sumatra is likely within the next few decades. More details on this study can be found here:  
http://www.earthobservatory.sg/media/2008/20081212_PrehistoricRecordImprovesForecastOfLarge
WestSumatranEarthquakeAndTsunami/index.php

Singapore is well protected from the threat of an earthquake-generated tsunami because it is not directly exposed to open ocean but surrounded by a number of land masses. A study completed in December 2008, by the Nanyang Technological University and the National University of Singapore, showed that a tsunami generated by rupture of a very large earthquake fault beneath the South China Sea would take about 10 hours to reach Singapore by which time most of the wave energy would have dissipated, resulting in only a moderate rise in sea level (less than a metre).

The EOS reiterates that there is no scientific evidence to support the rumour that an earthquake-tsunami in the southeast Asian region linked to the solar eclipse on 22 July 2009 will occur.

Original Link

===Related Stories===

Prehistoric Record Improves Forecast of Large West Sumatran Earthquake and Tsunami

12-Dec-2008

A study of Indonesian reefs, published in the prestigious journal Science, showed corals record cyclical environmental events and could predict a massive earthquake in the eastern Indian Ocean within the next 30 years. Led by Professor Kerry Sieh, Director of the Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University (NTU), the team found that corals off Indonesia’s Sumatra island showed they have annual growth rings, like those in tree trunks, which record cyclical events such as earthquakes. Professor Kerry said that one or more very large West Sumatran earthquakes can be expected within the next few decades, as the potential slip that was not relieved in September 2007 is enough to generate a 8.8 magnitude earthquake, in a region with more than a million people living along the coast. For the past four years, Prof Kerry has also been working with Indonesian non-governmental organisations, NGOs on developing evacuation routes for earthquakes and educating the public how to rebuild their lives after a tsunami.

Original Link

===Related Article===

Solar Eclipses and Earthquakes?

TUESDAY, 14. JULY 2009, 16:04:52

As I have been directly asked, I would like to point out that in my view there is no scientific evidence to support the rumour that an earthquake-tsunami in South East Asia or Japan linked to the solar eclipse on 22 July 2009 will occur.

“That a Tokai Earthquake could occur at any moment” as I wrote in a post here already a couple of years ago is another matter, but putting a specific date to it for whatever reason is going too far. So far scientists have not found (or proved) any statistically significant correlation between solar eclipses and earthquakes.

Original Link

3 spots in Lhasa ideal for July 22 eclipse observation

2009-07-16 09:49:19 by http://www.chinaview.cn/index.htm

BEIJING, July 16 (Xinhuanet) — There are three spots for Lhasa citizens to witness a partial solar eclipse on July 22, a once-in-a-century wonder, according to Lhasa Evening News.

The combination photo shows the total solar eclipse occured in Jinta County of Jiuquan City, northwest China’s Gansu Province, on Aug. 1, 2008. The total solar eclipse, the first that can be viewed in China in the new century, occured on Friday. (Xinhua/Han Chuanhao)

Lei Zhiyong, sponsor of a stargazer fan club, said many places in Lhasa are ideal for observing the eclipse. Among those, the Potala Palace Square and the Village of Gangdelin of Doilungdeqen County command an open vision, therefore are better choices for general observation.

He said, the Niangre Valley is perfect for professional observation and for setting up astronomical telescopes.

Cona County in southeastern Tibet’s Shannan Prefecture will be the first of the whole country to glance at the eclipse, said the newspaper.

(Source: Lhasa Evening News/Xinhuanet)

Tibet first to see longest total solar eclipse in 500 years

BEIJING, June 15 (Xinhuanet) — China will see the longest total solar eclipse in 500 years on July 22.

The total eclipse will last up to six minutes, the longest that can be seen in almost 500 years from 1814 to 2309, according to Wang Sichao, a scientist of the Purple Mountain Observatory of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Saturday. Full story

Lhasa citizens to view partial solar eclipse on July 22

BEIJING, July 2 (Xinhuanet) — Lhasa citizens will have the opportunity to observe a partial solar eclipse on July 22, the Lhasa Evening Paper reports.

Experts say that the astronomical wonder is expected to begin from 8:02 a.m. to 10:01 a.m. (Beijing time). And the mid-eclipse can be seen at 9:01 a.m.

Tibet first to see longest total solar eclipse in 500 years

BEIJING, June 15 (Xinhuanet) — China will see the longest total solar eclipse in 500 years on July 22.

The total eclipse will last up to six minutes, the longest that can be seen in almost 500 years from 1814 to 2309, according to Wang Sichao, a scientist of the Purple Mountain Observatory of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Saturday.

တိဘက္ေဒသက ႏွစ္ေပါင္း ၅ဝဝ အတြင္း အခ်ိန္အၾကာဆံုး ေနၾကတ္တာကို ပထမဦးဆံုး ေတြ႕ရမဲ့ ေဒသလို႕ ဆိုပါတယ္။ တိဘက္ေဒသကေတာ့ ပထမဦးဆံုးျမင္ၾကရမွာျဖစ္ၿပီး Sichuan, Yuannan, Hubei and Henan ေဒသေတြကလဲ ေတြ႕ႏိုင္မွာျဖစ္တယ္လို႕ ဆင္ဟြာသတင္းဌာနကတင္ထားတဲ့ ပို႕စ္ေတြကို အေပၚက လင့္ေတြမွာ ဖတ္ႏိုင္ပါတယ္။ တရုတ္စံေတာ္ခ်ိန္နဲ႕ နံနက္ ၉ နာရီက စမွာျဖစ္ၿပီး ျမန္မာစံေတာ္ခ်ိန္နဲ႕ နံနက္ ၆ နာရီခြဲခန္႕ မွာ စတင္မွာျဖစ္ကာ ၉ နာရီေလာက္အထိ ၾကာႏိုင္တယ္လို႕ ခန္႕မွန္းထားၾကပါတယ္။

44th comment by author for 22 July Eclips-Earthquake Theory

ဇူလိုင္လ ၂၂ ရက္ေန႕မွာ ျဖစ္လာႏိုင္တဲ့ ေနၾကတ္ျခင္းနဲ႕ ငလွ်င္လႈပ္ျခင္း ဆက္စပ္ျဖစ္ေပၚလာႏိုင္တယ္ဆိုတဲ့ အယူအဆနဲ႕ပတ္သက္ၿပီး စတင္ေရးသားခဲ့သူ Britton LaRoche က ဇူလိုင္လ ၂ ရက္ေန႕မွာ သူ႕ရဲ႕ Blog Post မွာဘဲ အခုေအာက္မွာေဖၚျပထားတဲ့အတိုင္း ဆက္ေရးသားထားတာ ဖတ္ရတဲ့အတြက္ ဆက္ၿပီး ေဖၚျပေပးလိုက္ပါတယ္။

Hans Lenher ကလဲ သူ႕လိုဘဲ တူညီတဲ့ အယူအဆကို စတင္ ေရးသားခဲ့သူျဖစ္ပါတယ္။ အဲဒီမွာ Britton က USGS ရဲ႕ အၿငိမ္းစား ဘူမိေဗဒ ပညာရွင္ ျဖစ္တဲ့ Jim Berkland နဲ႕ ၾသစေတးလွ်က ဘူမိ-သိပၸံပညာရွင္ Ole Nielsen တို႕နဲ႕ ဆက္သြယ္ၿပီး အဲဒီ ပညာရွင္ႀကီး ၂ ေယာက္ရဲ႕ ထင္ျမင္ခ်က္ေတြကို ေမးခဲ့ပါတယ္ တဲ့။

ၿပီးေတာ့ ကမာၻ႕ေျမဆြဲအား သုေတသနအဖြဲ႕ Ed Oberg နဲ႕လဲ အီးေမးလ္ ေပၚမွာ အဆက္အသြယ္ေတြလုပ္ခဲ့ရာမွာ Ed Oberg ေျပာတဲ့ထဲက တစ္ခုကိုေတာ့ သူ႕ blog ပိရိတ္သတ္အတြက္ ေျပာျပခ်င္ပါတယ္လို႕ ေရးထားပါတယ္။

အဲဒါကေတာ့ Allias Effect လို႕ေခၚတဲ့ ေနၾကတ္တဲ့အခ်ိန္မွာ ခ်ိန္သီးတစ္ခု ကမာၻ႕ေျမဆြဲအားမွာ လႈပ္ရမ္းေနတဲ့ အေပၚ အက်ဳိးသက္ေရာက္မႈရွိတဲ့ အျဖစ္အပ်က္ျဖစ္ၿပီး ကမာၻ႕ေျမဆြဲအားနဲ႕ ပတ္သက္တဲ့ ပံုမွန္ ရူပေဗဒ စမ္းသပ္မႈ ပစၥည္းေတြနဲ႕ တိုင္းတာေျဖရွင္းလို႕မရတဲ့ အျဖစ္အပ်က္ပါလို႕ ဆိုပါတယ္။ အဲဒီ Allias Effect ကိုေတာ့ ၁၉၅၄ ခုႏွစ္မွာ ျပင္သစ္ သိပၸံပညာရွင္ Maurice Allias ဆိုသူ စီးပြားေရးဆိုင္ရာ နိုဘယ္ဆုရွင္တစ္ဦးက ရွာေဖြေတြ႕ရွိခဲ့တာျဖစ္ပါတယ္။

သူ႕ရဲ႕ရွင္းလင္းခ်က္ကေတာ့ ဒီလိုျဖစ္ပါတယ္ –

Prof. Allais’s explanation for this and other anomalies is that space evinces certain anisotropic characteristics, which he ascribes to motion through an aether which is partially entrained by planetary bodies. He has presented this hypothesis in his 1997 book “L’Anisotropie de l’espace”.

Allais’s paraconical pendulum

ဒီရွင္းလင္းခ်က္ေတြ အေသးစိတ္ဖတ္ခ်င္ရင္ေတာ့ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allais_Effect မွာဖတ္ရႈႏိုင္ပါတယ္။

က်ေနာ္တို႕ကေတာ့ ဇူလိုင္လ ၂၂ ရက္ေန႕မွာ ျဖစ္မဲ့ ေနၾကတ္မႈေၾကာင့္ ေပၚေပါက္လာႏိုင္တယ္လို႕ ဆိုတဲ့ ယူဆခ်က္ေတြအေပၚ Britton ရဲ႕ သံုးသပ္ခ်က္ဆီကိုဘဲ ဆက္သြားရေအာင္ပါ။

Britton က သူ႕ရဲ႕ 43 ခုေျမာက္ comment မွာ ဘာေျပာထားသလဲဆိုေတာ့  ..

” က်ေနာ္က သိပၸံပညာရွင္တစ္ဦးမဟုတ္သလို ဘူမိေဗဒပညာရွင္တစ္ဦးလဲ မဟုတ္တဲ့အတြက္ လူအမ်ားအတြက္ တရားဝင္သတိေပးခ်က္ေတြ ထုတ္ျပန္ႏိုင္သူတစ္ဦးမဟုတ္ပါဘူး၊ ဒါေပမဲ့ လူအမ်ား ေဘးအႏၱရာယ္နဲ႕ ႀကံဳေတြ႕လာရႏိုင္တဲ့ အေျခအေနျဖစ္တယ္ဆိုတာကိုေတာ့ ကၽြန္ေတာ္ယံုၾကည္ပါတယ္၊ ကၽြမ္းက်င္တဲ့ ပညာရွင္ေတြအေပၚမွာဘဲ ယံုယံုၾကည္ၾကည္နဲ႕ အားကိုးရမွာပါ။ ဒါေၾကာင့္ သက္ဆိုင္ရာ သိပၸံပညာရွင္ေတြနဲ႕ အဖြဲ႕အစည္းေတြက Hans Lehner လိုမ်ဳိး တကယ့္သိပၸံပညာရွင္ေတြနဲ႕ပူးေပါင္းၿပီး အမွန္တကယ္ အႏၱရာယ္နဲ႕ ႀကံဳေတြ႕ရမဲ့ကိစၥကို အတည္ျပဳၿပီး သတိေပးခ်က္ေတြ ထုတ္ျပန္ေစခ်င္ပါတယ္။ ေျမငလွ်င္ႀကီးေတြနဲ႕ ဆူနာမီလွဳိင္းႀကီးေတြကို (တကယ္ျဖစ္လာတဲ့အခါ) ဘယ္သူမွ တားမထားႏိုင္ပါဘူး – ဒါေပမဲ့ အဲဒီေဒသေတြက လူေတြ သတိခ်ပ္ၿပီး ေဘးလြတ္ရာကိုေရွာင္ေနၾကေအာင္ေတာ့ တစ္ခုခု လုပ္ေပးႏိုင္ပါတယ္ ..” လို႕ ေရးထားပါတယ္ ။

သူကဆက္ၿပီး .. “က်ေနာ္အႀကံဳျပခ်င္တာကေတာ့ဗ်ာ အဲဒီကာလကို မေရာက္ခင္ ဂ်ပန္ေတြရဲ႕ Hamoaka ႏ်ဴကလီးယားစက္ရံုကို ဇူလိုင္ ၁၇ ရက္ေန႕ကစၿပီး ဇူလိုင္ ၂၉ ရက္ေန႕အထိ ပိတ္ထားလိုက္ရင္ ေကာင္းမွာပါဘဲ၊ ဒီေတာင္းဆိုခ်က္ဟာ သိတ္ကိုျမင့္ေနမွန္းသိေပမဲ့ တကယ္လို႕မ်ား အႏၱရာယ္နဲ႕ႀကံဳေတြ႕လာရတဲ့ အေျခအေနဆိုရင္ ေကာင္းတဲ့ အေထာက္အကူတစ္ခုေတာ့ျဖစ္မွာပါဗ်ာ ..” လို႕ ေရးသားထားတာကို ဆီေလွ်ာ္ေအာင္ ဘာသာျပန္ၿပီး တင္ျပလိုက္ရပါတယ္။

22nd July Total Eclips and the Huge Quake Connection

၂ဝဝ၉ ခုႏွစ္ ဇူလိုင္လ ၂၂ ရက္ေန႕မွာ ေနအျပည့္ၾကတ္မဲ့အခ်ိန္နဲ႕ ကမၻာ့ေက်ာက္လႊာခ်ပ္ႀကီးမ်ား “Tetonic Plates” ရဲ႕ အေပၚကို က်ေရာက္မဲ့ ဆြဲငင္အားေတြေၾကာင့္ ႀကီးမားတဲ့ ငလွ်င္လႈပ္ႏိုင္ၿပီး အဲဒီ ငလွ်င္ေၾကာင့္ ဆူနာမီလွဳိင္းႀကီးမ်ားျဖစ္ေပၚလာႏိုင္ေၾကာင္း Britton LaRoche က GarageGames ဆိုတ့ဲ Blog တစ္ခုမွာ “Japanese Quake and Tsunami Predicted by July 22 2009” ဆိုတဲ့အမည္နဲ႕ ၂ဝဝ၉ ခုႏွစ္ ဇန္ဝါရီလ ၈ ရက္ေန႕ မွာ စတင္ေရးသားခဲ့ပါတယ္။ view Britton LaRoche’s article

ဒီကိစၥနဲ႕ပတ္သက္လို႕ ေဝဖန္တာေတြ ျငင္းတာေတြနဲ႕ ေထာက္ခံေဆြးေႏြးတာေတြကေတာ့ အမ်ားႀကီးပါဘဲ အဲဒီ Article ရဲ႕ comments ေတြမွာ အေသးစိတ္ဖတ္ႏိုင္ပါတယ္။

ဒီမွာေတာ့ Mr. Britton LaRoche ရဲ႕ ေနၾကတ္မႈေၾကာင့္ျဖစ္ေပၚလာႏိုင္တဲ့ ငလွ်င္ႀကီးမ်ား သီအိုရီကို ေလ့လာၾကည့္ၾကမွာျဖစ္ပါတယ္။

Total Solar Eclipse Earthquake Theory
The eclipse quake theory is as follows, When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling on a plate that has not had series of recent earth quakes, the extra pull is all that is needed to “pop the seam” and cause a major quake. Molten magma beneath the surface of the earth plays a role too. Because the earth rotates faster than the moon’s orbit, this magma tide is often actually directly in front of the moon’s path.

ဒီသီအိုရီကို မေလ့လာခင္မွာ ကမာၻ႕ေက်ာက္လႊာခ်ပ္ႀကီးမ်ားေရြ႕လ်ားမႈ ကို အရင္ၾကည့္ၾကရေအာင္ပါ –

ကမာၻေျမႀကီးစတင္ျဖစ္ေပၚတဲ့အခ်ိန္မွာ သိပၸံပညာရွင္ႀကီးေတြ မသိခဲ့ၾကတဲ့ ကမာၻ႕အတြင္းပိုင္းဖြဲ႕စည္းပံုရဲ႕ ေရြ႕လ်ားျခင္းကို ပထမဦးစြာ ကမာၻ႕တိုက္ႀကီးမ်ားေရြ႕လ်ားျခင္းအေနနဲ႕ သိခဲ့ၾကၿပီး ၂ဝရာစုႏွစ္လြန္မွ Litho-Sphere ဆိုတဲ့ ကမာၻ႕အေပၚလႊာမွာ Crust နဲ႕ Mantle တို႕ ရဲ႕ ေရြ႕လ်ားေျပာင္းလဲေနမႈေတြကို ေသေသခ်ာခ်ာ ေလ့လာသိရွိလာခဲ့ၾကပါတယ္။ အဲဒီျဖစ္စဥ္ကို ၁၉၁၅ ခုႏွစ္မွာ ဂ်ာမန္ ဘူမိေဗဒနဲ႕ မိုးေလဝသ ပညာရွင္ႀကီး Alfred Lothar Wegener က တိုက္ႀကီးမ်ားေျဖးညွင္းစြာ ေရြ႕လ်ားေနၾကျခင္း ယူဆခ်က္ကို သက္ေသျပ ႏိုင္ခဲ့တာျဖစ္ပါတယ္။

Alfred Lothar Wegener ရဲ႕ အယူအဆကို  လက္ခံျခင္းမရွိခဲ့ၾကေပမဲ့ ကမာၻ႕တိုက္ႀကီးမ်ား ေရြ႕လ်ားမႈကို  ေလ့လာသူမ်ားရဲ႕ ေလ့လာေတြ႕ရွိခ်က္ အေထာက္အထားေတြေၾကာင့္ ၁၉၅ဝ ျပည့္လြန္ႏွစ္ေတြက်မွ လက္ခံလာၾကတာျဖစ္ပါတယ္။

၁၉၆ဝ ျပည့္ႏွစ္မွာ Princeton University က Harry Hess မွ ပင္လယ္/သမုဒၵရာၾကမ္းျပင္ေတြဟာ သူတို႕နဲ႕အတူ တိုက္ႀကီးမ်ားကိုပါ သယ္ေဆာင္ၿပီး ေရြ႕လ်ားေနၾကတာကို Seafloor Seperading အယူအဆတစ္ခုအေနနဲ႕ တင္သြင္းခဲ့ၿပီး ယေန႕ေခတ္အားလံုးက လက္ခံလာၾက တာျဖစ္ပါတယ္။ ဒီအယူအဆကိုလက္ခံလာၾကတာနဲ႕ အမွ် ကမာၻ႕တိုက္ႀကီးမ်ားဟာ ကမာၻႀကီးျဖစ္တည္စမွာ ေအာက္ပံုမွာပါတဲ့အတိုင္းရွိေနၾကရာက Seafloor seperading Theory အရ ေရြ႕လ်ားေနခဲ့ၾကၿပီး ႏွစ္သန္းေပါင္းမ်ားစြာၾကာတဲ့အခါမွာ ယေန႕ ကမာၻ႕တိုက္ႀကီးမ်ားရဲ႕ သြင္ျပင္အေနအထား အထိျဖစ္လာၾကတာပါ။

Tectonic Plates Before

Tectonic Plates Before

ကမာၻ႕ေက်ာက္လႊာခ်ပ္ႀကီးေတြရွိေနတဲ့ (Seafloor) ဟာ အခုေအာက္ပံုမွာျမင္ရတဲ့အတိုင္းႏွစ္သန္းေပါင္းမ်ားစြာၾကာတဲ့အခါမွာေရြ႕လ်ား ေျပာင္းလဲသြားၾကၿပီး ယေန႕အခ်ိန္အထိ တစ္ႏွစ္လွ်င္ မီလီမီတာ ၅ဝ မွ ၁ဝဝ အထိ ဆက္လက္ေရြ႕လ်ားေနၾကဆဲျဖစ္တယ္လို႕ သိရပါတယ္။ ဒီအေၾကာင္းကို အေသးစိတ္မေရးေတာ့ဘဲ အခုအဓိက တင္ျပခ်င္တဲ့ အေၾကာင္းအရာကို ဆက္သြားၾကရေအာင္ပါ။

Tectonic_Plates

ဒီေနရာအထိရွင္းျပရတာကေတာ့ ပင္လယ္သမုဒၵရာၾကမ္းျပင္မွာ အေပၚကပံုမွာေဖၚျပထားတဲ့အတိုင္း Tectonic Plates ေတြရဲ႕ နယ္နိမိတ္ေတြ (ေနာက္တစ္နည္းေျပာရရင္ ျပတ္ေရြ႕ႀကီးေတြ) ရွိေနတယ္ဆိုတာ ျမင္ေစခ်င္လို႕ပါဘဲ။ ဒါေတြကို ျမင္မွ Tectonic Plates ေတြရဲ႕ ေရြ႕လ်ားမႈေတြ၊ သူတို႕ရဲ႕ေရြ႕လ်ားမႈေၾကာင့္ ျဖစ္ေပၚလာတဲ့ ပြတ္တိုက္မႈေတြ၊ အဲဒီပြတ္တိုက္မႈေတြေၾကာင့္ ျဖစ္ေပၚလာရတဲ့ ငလွ်င္လႈပ္ခတ္မႈႀကီးေတြအေၾကာင္း ကြင္းကြင္းကြက္ကြက္ေတြ႕လာမွာပါ။ ေနာက္တစ္ဆင့္အေနနဲ႕ အခု ဇူလိုင္လ ၂၂ ရက္ေန႕မွာျဖစ္မဲ့ ေနအျပည့္ၾကတ္တာနဲ႕ Tectonic Plates ေတြရဲ႕ နယ္နိမိတ္ထိစပ္တဲ့ေနရာေတြအေပၚမွာ အက်ဳိးသက္ေရာက္မႈေတြ ဘယ္လိုျဖစ္ၿပီး ဘယ္လိုဆိုးက်ဳိးေတြ ျဖစ္လာႏိုင္မယ္ဆိုတာ ဆက္ေလ့လာၾကဘို႕ ျဖစ္ပါတယ္။

“The eclipse quake theory is as follows, When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling on a plate that has not had series of recent earth quakes, the extra pull is all that is needed to “pop the seam” and cause a major quake.”

Britton LaRoche ရဲ႕ သီအိုရီကို အခုျပန္ေလ့လာၾကရေအာင္ – သူ႕သီအိုရီအဆိုအရ လတ္တေလာအခ်ိန္အတြင္း ဆက္တိုက္ လႈပ္ခတ္မႈမရွိတဲ့ Plate ေပၚကို ေနနဲ႕ လတို႕ရဲ႕ ဆြဲငင္အားက်ေရာက္တဲ့အခါ ျပတ္ေရြ႕ေၾကာင္းႀကီးကို ႀကြတက္လာေစမယ္၊ အဲဒီႀကြတက္လာမႈေၾကာင့္ ႀကီးမားတဲ့ ေျမငလွ်င္ႀကီးျဖစ္ေပၚလာမယ္လို႕ ဆိုခ်င္တာျဖစ္ၿပီး အဲဒီအဆိုအတြက္ လြန္ခဲ့တဲ့ ႏွစ္ေတာ္ေတာ္မ်ားမ်ားအတြင္းမွာျဖစ္ေပၚခဲ့တဲ့ ေနအျပည့္ ၾကတ္တဲ့ ျဖစ္စဥ္ေတြနဲ႕ အဲဒီအခ်ိန္ေတြမွာ လႈပ္ခတ္ခဲ့တဲ့ ေျမငလွ်င္ေတြရဲ႕ ဆက္စပ္ပံုေတြကို ေလ့လာၾကည့္တဲ့အခါ –

၁၉၉၅ ခုႏွစ္ ေအာက္တိုဘာလ ၂၄ ရက္ေန႕မွာ ျဖစ္ခဲ့တဲ့ ေနအျပည့္ၾကတ္ျခင္းနဲ႕ ေအာက္တိုဘာလ ၂၃ ရက္ေန႕မွာ ေနၾကတ္တာမျဖစ္ခင္ ၆ နာရီႀကိဳတင္ၿပီး ရစ္ခ်တာစေကး ၅.၈ နဲ႕ ၆.၂ ရွိတဲ့ ေျမငလွ်င္ႀကီး ၂ ခု ဆက္တိုက္လႈပ္ခတ္သြားတဲ့ ျဖစ္စဥ္ –

၈၁ ေယာက္ေသၿပီး ၈ဝဝ ေက်ာ္ဒဏ္ရာရခဲ့ၾကပါတယ္ Chuxiong, Dongchuan, Kunming, Qujing, Zhaotong နဲ႕ တရုတ္ျပည္ေျမာက္ပိုင္းေဒသေတာ္ေတာ္မ်ားမ်ားမွာ ငလွ်င္လႈပ္ခတ္သြားတာကို သိခဲ့ၾကပါတယ္။

၁၉၈၈ ခုႏွစ္ မတ္လ ၁၈ ရက္ေန႕မွာ ျဖစ္ခဲ့တဲ့ ေနအျပည့္ၾကတ္ျခင္းနဲ႕ မတ္လ ၁၇ ရက္ေန႕ ၂ဝး၃၄ နာရီမွာ ေနၾကတ္တာမျဖစ္ခင္ ၆ နာရီႀကိဳတင္ၿပီး ရစ္ခ်တာစေကး ၅.၄  ရွိတဲ့ ေျမငလွ်င္ႀကီး လႈပ္ခတ္သြားတဲ့ ျဖစ္စဥ္ –

ျပင္းအားအသင့္အတင့္ရွိၿပီး လူ ၁ဝ ဦးသာ ထိခိုက္ဒဏ္ရာရခဲ့ၾကပါတယ္။

၂ဝဝ၈ ခုႏွစ္ ၾသဂုတ္လ ၁ ရက္ေန႕မွာ ျဖစ္ခဲ့တဲ့ ေနအျပည့္ၾကတ္ျခင္းနဲ႕ ၾသဂုတ္လ ၁ ရက္ေန႕ ဝ၈း၃၂ နာရီမွာ ေနၾကတ္တာမျဖစ္ခင္ ၁ နာရီ ႀကိဳတင္ၿပီး ရစ္ခ်တာစေကး ၅.၇  ရွိတဲ့ ေျမငလွ်င္ႀကီး လႈပ္ခတ္သြားတဲ့ ျဖစ္စဥ္ –
ျပင္းအားအသင့္အတင့္ရွိကာ Beichuan and Pingwu ေဒသေတြမွာ လူ ၂၃၁ ဦးသာ ထိခိုက္ဒဏ္ရာရခဲ့ၾကၿပီး လူေနအိမ္ ၅၄ဝ လံုးဝပ်က္စီးၿပီး –  အိမ္ ၂၄၅ဝ ေက်ာ္ အနည္းငယ္ပ်က္စီး ခဲ့ပါတယ္။
Britton LaRoche ရဲ႕ ေလ့လာမႈေတြထဲက နီးစပ္တဲ့ ဥပမာေတြကိုဘဲ အထက္မွာ ထုတ္ႏွဳတ္တင္ျပေပးထားတာျဖစ္ၿပီး အားလံုးကို ေလ့လာဖတ္ရႈ ခ်င္ရင္ေတာ့ http://www.garagegames.com/community/blog/view/15946 မွာ ဖတ္ႏိုင္ပါတယ္။
Hans Lehner ဆိုသူ Institute for Space Quantum Physics and Space Quantum Research ရဲ႕ ဥကၠဌက Britton LaRoche ရဲ႕ သီအိုရီေတြအေပၚမွာ ေထာက္ခံၿပီး တရုတ္ႏိုင္ငံ ေတာင္ပိုင္းေဒသေတြမွာ ရစ္ခ်တာစေကး ၆ အထက္ရွိတဲ့ ငလွ်င္ႀကီးေတြ လႈပ္ခတ္လာႏိုင္ေၾကာင္း Space Quantum Theory နဲ႕ဆက္စပ္ၿပီးေျပာထားပါတယ္။

Quantum Theory အရ ကမာၻ႕လည္ပတ္မႈေၾကာင့္ျဖစ္ေပၚလာတဲ့ ဆြဲအားနဲ႕ ေနၾကတ္ျခင္းေၾကာင့္ျဖစ္ေပၚလာတဲ့

  • Umbral (“a conical shadow excluding all light from a given source ; specifically : the conical part of the shadow of a celestial body excluding all light from the primary source b: the central dark part of a sunspot”) ေအာက္မွာ ဆြဲငင္အားေတြေၾကာင့္ ကမာၻ႕ “Crust” အလႊာဟာ ျမင့္တက္လာမွာျဖစ္ေၾကာင္း၊
  • Umbral Zone အတြင္းမွာ(ေနၾကတ္မႈေအာက္တည့္တည့္မွာ) ျမင့္တက္လာမႈဟာ ၁၂ မီတာအထိရွိႏိုင္ၿပီး Umbral လို႕ေခၚတဲ့ ေနၾကတ္မႈေၾကာင့္ျဖစ္တဲ့ အရိပ္ေအာက္က လြတ္သြားတဲ့ တခဏမွာ Crust နဲ႕ သူ႕ေအာက္က အလႊာေတြဟာ ကမာၻ႕ဗဟိုကို ျပန္အက်မွာ လတၱီတြဒ္ ၃၁ ဒီဂရီနဲ႕ ၃၂ ဒီဂရီအၾကား ေနၾကတ္တဲ့ရက္မွ ၆ ရက္အတြင္း ျပင္းအား ၆ နဲ႕ အထက္ေျမငလွ်င္ႀကီးလႈပ္ႏိုင္ေၾကာင္း ေျပာထားတာေတြ႕ရပါတယ္။
  • ဒီဧရိယာဟာ တရုတ္ႏိုင္ငံေတာင္ပိုင္း “ခ်န္ဒူး” ၿမိဳ႕မွ “ရွန္ဟိုင္း” အထိ အက်ဳံးဝင္တယ္လို႕ Hans Lehner က ဆိုပါတယ္။
  • In events of this nature, the earth’s rotation and the attendant centrifugal force play a far more important role, a fact not so far understood in academic physics.
  • The new principles of space quantum physics automatically lead to a revised gravitation theory as postulated by Oliver Crane, identifying a cosmic mechanical down-pressure instead of the gravity or mass attraction taught in traditional physics.It follows that the cosmic mechanical gravitational pressure, or lehneron pressure, will be substantially weakened by this celestial body constellation within the umbral (stress-free) zone in southern China and the centrifugal force, produced by the earth’s rotation, can briefly lift the earth’s crust, sector by sector within the umbral/stress-free zone, by up to 12 meters.
  • After the umbra is gone, the restored normal pressure will push sector by sector back toward the earth’s core.
  • This will trigger strong earthquakes with a magnitude of 6 and greater in the areas of seismic activity in southern China around the 31st and 32nd latitude within a span of 1 to 6 days.
  • The areas most at risk during that time period are located directly in the umbra of the solar eclipse of 7/22/2009 along a swath of 250 km stretching from the mega city Chengdu in south western China, the scene of the powerful May 12, 2008 earthquake with a magnitude of 7.9 that took thousands of lives, all the way to the mega city Shanghai in south eastern China.In events of this nature, the earth’s rotation and the attendant centrifugal force play a far more important role, a fact not so far understood in academic physics.
  • The new principles of space quantum physics automatically lead to a revised gravitation theory as postulated by Oliver Crane, identifying a cosmic mechanical down-pressure instead of the gravity or mass attraction taught in traditional physics.
  • It follows that the cosmic mechanical gravitational pressure, or lehneron pressure, will be substantially weakened by this celestial body constellation within the umbral (stress-free) zone in southern China and the centrifugal force, produced by the earth’s rotation, can briefly lift the earth’s crust, sector by sector within the umbral/stress-free zone, by up to 12 meters.
  • After the umbra is gone, the restored normal pressure will push sector by sector back toward the earth’s core. This will trigger strong earthquakes with a magnitude of 6 and greater in the areas of seismic activity in southern China around the 31st and 32nd latitude within a span of 1 to 6 days.
  • The areas most at risk during that time period are located directly in the umbra of the solar eclipse of 7/22/2009 along a swath of 250 km stretching from the mega city Chengdu in south western China, the scene of the powerful May 12, 2008 earthquake with a magnitude of 7.9 that took thousands of lives, all the way to the mega city Shanghai in south eastern China.

view original article at http://www.rqm.ch/earthquake_warnings_with_magnitu1.htm

နိဂံုးခ်ဳပ္အေနနဲ႕ ေျပာခ်င္တာကေတာ့ ဒီကိစၥဟာ ျဖစ္ႏိုင္တယ္လို႕ အပိုင္ေျပာလို႕ မရသလို မျဖစ္ႏိုင္ဘူးလို႕လဲ ျငင္းဆိုလို႕မရတဲ့ ကိစၥျဖစ္ပါတယ္။ Britton LaRoche ကေတာ့ သူ႕အေနနဲ႕ ဂ်ပန္ႏိုင္ငံ Tokai ကၽြန္း ကို ဇူလိုင္ ၂၂ ရက္ေန႕ မွာ ေနၾကတ္တာေၾကာင့္ ငလွ်င္လႈပ္ဖို႕အတြက္ ျဖစ္ႏိုင္ေျခပိုမ်ားတယ္လို႕ ထင္ျမင္ခ်က္ေပးထားပါတယ္။

Hans Lehner ရဲ႕ article မွာေတာ့ ဇူလိုင္ ၂၂ ရက္ေန႕မွ ဇူလိုင္ ၂၈ ရက္ေန႕အထိ အႏၱရာယ္ရွိတဲ့ေဒသေတြဟာ ေအာက္ပါအတိုင္းျဖစ္ေၾကာင္း ေဖၚျပထားတာေတြ႕ရပါတယ္။ ဘယ္သူကဘဲ မွန္မွန္ လူသားမ်ားအတြက္ ေတာ့ ေၾကာက္စရာသဘာဝေဘးအႏၱရာယ္ႀကီး တစ္ခုျဖစ္တာေၾကာင့္ရယ္ အရင္ကေတာ့ ငလွ်င္လႈပ္ႏိုင္ေျခကို ႀကိဳတင္ခန္႕မွန္းရန္မလြယ္ကူေသာ္လည္း ဒီတစ္ခါမွာ ေနာက္ဆံုးေပၚ သီအိုရီေတြနဲ႕ ထင္ျမင္ယူဆခ်က္ေတြ မွန္မလား ဆိုတာရယ္ ေစာင့္ၾကည့္ေလ့လာရင္း မိမိအႏၱရာယ္ကိုလဲ မိမိဘာသာ ႀကိဳတင္ေရွာင္ရွားႏိုင္ၾကေစရန္ ေစတနာျဖင့္ တင္ျပလိုက္ရေၾကာင္းပါ။

Areas in danger from July 22 to July 28, 2009

The most endangered areas are all situated within the umbra (stress-free zone) of the total solar eclipse of July 22, 2009.

They are:

Southeastern Nepal, northern Bangladesh, Bhutan, Burma / northern Myanmar, Tibet.

CHINA: The megalopolis of Chengdu, Chongqing, Wuhan, Hefei, Hangzou and Shanghai, respectively.

In these big Chinese cities, millions of people are in danger.

ဇူလိုင္လ ၂၂ ရက္ေန႕တြင္ ေနအျပည့္ၾကတ္သည့္အခါ ျဖတ္သြားမည့္ လမ္းေၾကာင္း


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Reply mesage concerning Myanmar by Britton LaRoche

Fist off I’m not qualified to tell you
(I asked “I would like to ask how can I calculate or imagine how much damage caused by 22nd JULY Eclips-Quake can be to our country?”)

I’ll just stick to the advice of Hans Lehner, and what other seismologists say about predicting the size of a quake.

From what I see the earthquakes associated with an eclipse are totally dependent on how much pressure is built up in the tectonic plate. The eclipse does not cause the quake, the release of the pressure in the tectonic plates or fault lines cause the quake. According to the eclipse quake theory the changes in gravity during the eclipse just facilitate this process.

The trick is to look at the earthquake cycle of the region, how long its been since the last big quake and how much movement you have in the fault lines and tectonic plates. This gives you an idea of how big the quake will be.

The best I can say is to look at Hans Lehners prediction for your neighbor (China) He seems to think there will be a 7.5 to a 7.9 for these provinces … Chengdu, Chongqing, Wuhan, Hefei, Hangzou and Shanghai.

www.ampedlabs.com/files/stuff/burma.jpg
Hans Lehner’s Prediction

If he is right then the only place Burma should be concerned about is the areas of Burma that are close to these regions of China. That would be North Burma.

I have not looked at the earthquake cycles in Burma, so I cant really say if there is a possibility of a quake there. I can say I doubt you will be affected by a Tsunami from Japan.

Professor Kerry Sieh from Caltech is concerned about a tsunami in the near future from a quake in Malaysia / Indonesia, but neither Dr Sieh nor Hans Lehner nor I think that there will be a tsunami from that region on July 22nd 2009.

Disclaimer: A Guess
This is just a guess but, I’ve seen that the areas that seem most affected by the gravitational pull seem to be closer to the height of the eclipse. To me I think Taiwan is the furthest point west of the eclipse that will have any impact. Personally I think India, Burma and China are safe, but Japan is not.

The real point of this whole blog post

The reason I made the prediction in the first place, was only to start a dialog on using a game engine to build an eclipse quake simulator. We can take this quake data, calculate the assumed tectonic pressure, the eclipse data and come up with a computer simulation in a modern game engine to produce a quantifiable probability of a quake and its magnitude. I think this would be a giant leap forward in predicting earthquakes, would be rather cost effective (the cost of game engines and processors are rather cheap these days). It should not take longer than a couple of years to have a really good simulator.

If we build the simulator to be flexible to take into account new data (recent seismic activity, magnetic fluctuation or missing cat reports) then we can refine the simulator over time. I’d bet with this strategy that we could have a very accurate prediction method with in a decade.